724
FXUS63 KDDC 141035
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
535 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS SW KS
- DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER THIS AFTERNOON
- WINDY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE THIS MORNING WITH THE
BEST CHANCE NORTH OF DODGE CITY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES ITS TREK
NORTHWARD. THE WARM SECTOR WILL RETURN TO SW KS IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS, INCREASING SOUTH WINDS, AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S. A FEW PLACES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS COULD REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS AMPLIFIED TOMORROW, WITH SW KS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER TEXAS, AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT, BRINGING STRONG
SOUTH WINDS AVERAGING 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES THURSDAY, CONTINUED STRONG
SOUTH WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AS THE GREAT BASIN CYCLONE EJECTS
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH MAY CLIP THE NORTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY
EVENING AS NBM POPS SUGGEST, BUT CLEARLY MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY.
A COUPLE OF WEAK, MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTS WILL TRIM TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND WEAKER WITH THE EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION. THE COOLEST DAY WILL
LIKELY BE SATURDAY, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE PLAINS,
WITH NORTH WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE FAR TOO PROGRESSIVE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION IN
SW KS, AND THE NBM POPS ARE DRY, WITH ANOTHER QUICK WARMING TREND
FOLLOWING SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE DDC TERMINAL
WILL EXPERIENCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE. VISIBILITIES
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WITH CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH WITH AN
INCREASE IN SPEED LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-
078>081-087>090.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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