081
FXUS63 KDDC 141502
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1002 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS, AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOONS, ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- FANTASTIC FALL FRIDAY, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS
WIND.
- A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS MINOR COOLING SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
HOT AND WINDY MONDAY, APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE THIS MORNING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF DODGE CITY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES
ITS TREK NORTHWARD. THE WARM SECTOR WILL RETURN TO SW KS IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS, INCREASING SOUTH WINDS, AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S. A FEW PLACES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COULD REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS AMPLIFIED TOMORROW, WITH SW KS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER TEXAS, AND A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT, BRINGING
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AVERAGING 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH
LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES THURSDAY,
CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AS THE GREAT
BASIN CYCLONE EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH MAY CLIP THE
NORTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY EVENING AS NBM POPS SUGGEST, BUT
CLEARLY MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
A COUPLE OF WEAK, MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTS WILL TRIM TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND WEAKER WITH THE EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION. THE COOLEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
PLAINS, WITH NORTH WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE FAR TOO PROGRESSIVE TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION IN SW KS, AND THE NBM POPS ARE DRY, WITH ANOTHER
QUICK WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
WIDESPREAD VERY POOR AVIATION WEATHER THIS MORNING, WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS/DENSE FOG,
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NORTHWARD. EXPECT GCK/DDC/LBL TO
RETURN TO VFR NO LATER THAN 18Z, WITH HYS FOLLOWING SOON AFTER
BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 18Z,
GUSTING 28-30 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS PREVAILING. AFTER 15Z WED, STRONG SOUTH
WINDS RETURN, AVERAGING 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...TURNER
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