585
FXUS63 KDDC 141900
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS, AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOONS, ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- FANTASTIC FALL FRIDAY, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS
WIND.
- A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS MINOR COOLING SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
HOT AND WINDY MONDAY, APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT FROM THIS MORNING HAD ENDED AS OF
11 AM, WITH ALL FOG LIFTING INTO A WIDESPREAD STRATUS LAYER.
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE EFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS
MIXING, SOUTH WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASE SOUTH OF THE
DEPARTING WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND, REBOUNDING
STRONGLY THROUGH THE 70S, TO NEAR 80 ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA.
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, AVERAGING
NEAR 20 MPH. RADAR AT 2 PM SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN, ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLES, AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. KEPT SOME POPS IN THE
FORECAST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SW KS FULLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL. SUNRISE TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, STRUGGLING TO FALL INTO THE
50S AT MANY LOCATIONS. NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER IS LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH FEATURE WINDY, UNSEASONABLY
WARM AFTERNOONS. CLOSED MIDLEVEL CYCLONE AT 560 DM OVER NEVADA
7 PM WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
REACHING SOUTHEAST MONTANA THURSDAY EVENING AS IT STRENGTHENS.
THE SURFACE RESPONSE OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WILL ESTABLISH WEDNESDAY, BUT BECOME EVEN STRONGER THURSDAY.
THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL KEEP THE KANSAS WIND MACHINE
CRANKED, WITH 850 MB WIND FIELDS EASILY SUPPORTING SOUTH WIND
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH BOTH DAYS. WITH 850 MB THERMAL FIELDS
UNUSUALLY WARM FOR MID OCTOBER, NEAR 20C, AND A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER, TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY ACHIEVE LOWER TO MID
80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE LACK OF SWLY DOWNSLOPE SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPEATURES FROM REACHING 90 DEGREES.
ENERGY FROM THE EJECTING NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH WILL SCRAPE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR THE LEE TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES, AND NBM POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE.
PER SPC DAY 3 AND MARGINAL 5% WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY, SOME STORMS
MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE, BUT THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN NW KS TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
AS THE TROUGH SPREADS ONTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL COLLAPSE, WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS. A FANTASTIC FALL FRIDAY WILL RESULT, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
WEAKER WITH A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF COOLING. THIS TROUGH IS FAR
TOO PROGRESSIVE TO SUPPORT RAINFALL IN SW KS, AND NBM'S DRY
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY, WILL ARRIVE ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY, AND BE EAST OF SW KS
MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. IN FACT, NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE PROBABLE MONDAY OCTOBER 20; NBM ALREADY IS
FORECASTING MID 80S, BUT STRONG SWLY DOWNSLOPE WILL ENCOURAGE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 4 PM MONDAY. THE RECORD HIGH AT DDC FOR
OCTOBER 20 IS 92/1975, AND THIS MAY BE REACHABLE, GIVEN PATTERN
RECOGNITION OF THE STRONG 850 MB WARM SURGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
WIDESPREAD VERY POOR AVIATION WEATHER THIS MORNING, WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN STRATUS/DENSE FOG,
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NORTHWARD. EXPECT GCK/DDC/LBL TO
RETURN TO VFR NO LATER THAN 18Z, WITH HYS FOLLOWING SOON AFTER
BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 18Z,
GUSTING 28-30 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS PREVAILING. AFTER 15Z WED, STRONG SOUTH
WINDS RETURN, AVERAGING 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
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