863
FXUS63 KDDC 170818
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
318 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT EAST OF A
COLDWATER TO PRATT LINE.
- A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
- LOWS IN THE 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST AND NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE THE FIRST
FROST OF THE SEASON, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE GARDEN CITY
AREA.
- BRIEF WARMUP POSSIBLE BEFORE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE ENHANCED SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WERE PRESENT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FURTHER SOUTH, CONVECTION WAS
MORE ISOLATED. CURRENT CAMS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE STORMS
WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS SOLUTION STILL
APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS AND WARMING CLOUD
TOPS. THE ONGOING CONVECTION AT 2AM THIS MORNING SHOULD BE OVER
BY DAYBREAK.
FOR TODAY, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND BE LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PRATT AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREAS BY 1 PM WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. IF STORMS DO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS IT WILL BE AFTER 8PM WHEN ENHANCED MOISTURE AND
LIFT DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE RISK OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW (LESS THAN 15%)
WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A PRATT TO
COLDWATER LINE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW (<30%)
ON THE PRECISE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF DODGE CITY, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S. FURTHER SOUTHEAST, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY. TONIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL INVADE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WEST OF HIGHWAY 283
FALLING INTO THE 40S.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN
A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
GIVEN THIS COLDER AIR MASS SETTLING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE GARDEN CITY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON AS LOWS DIP INTO THE
MID 30S AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE (60-70%) THAT SOME AREAS WILL HAVE FROST
SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR LIMITING
HOW WIDESPREAD THE FROST WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE WEST
WINDS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. THIS MAY LIMIT JUST HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP AND FOR HOW LONG.
THESE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF WARM UP BUT
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK ONCE AGAIN FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES, GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, CONSISTENT WITH CAMS GUIDANCE. GARDEN CITY HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-50%) IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LIBERAL MAY SEE A 30% OR LESS CHANCE OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 07Z
AND 07Z AND 09Z FRIDAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING HAYS AND DODGE CITY TAF SITES...HOWEVER WE WILL
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND UPDATE TAFS IF NECESSARY. SHOULD
CONVECTION PERSIST IT APPEARS THAT WHAT SMALL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED STORMS (10-15%) WOULD BE BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z AT HAYS
AND DODGE CITY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 10-15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CEILINGS OF 5000-8000FT AGL WITH THIS ACTIVITY,
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page