515
FXUS63 KDDC 171709
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT EAST OF A
COLDWATER TO PRATT LINE.
- A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
- LOWS IN THE 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST AND NORTH OF THE DODGE
CITY AREA SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE THE FIRST
FROST OF THE SEASON, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE GARDEN CITY
AREA.
- BRIEF WARMUP POSSIBLE BEFORE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE ENHANCED SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WERE PRESENT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FURTHER SOUTH, CONVECTION WAS
MORE ISOLATED. CURRENT CAMS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE STORMS
WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS SOLUTION STILL
APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS AND WARMING CLOUD
TOPS. THE ONGOING CONVECTION AT 2AM THIS MORNING SHOULD BE OVER
BY DAYBREAK.
FOR TODAY, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND BE LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PRATT AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREAS BY 1 PM WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. IF STORMS DO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THEN IT WILL BE AFTER 8PM WHEN ENHANCED MOISTURE
AND LIFT DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE RISK OF STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW (LESS THAN 15%)
WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A PRATT TO
COLDWATER LINE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW (<30%) ON
THE PRECISE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF DODGE CITY, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S. FURTHER SOUTHEAST, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S ARE LIKELY. TONIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL INVADE SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 FALLING INTO THE 40S.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN
A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
GIVEN THIS COLDER AIR MASS SETTLING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE GARDEN CITY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON AS LOWS DIP INTO THE
MID 30S AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE (60-70%) THAT SOME AREAS WILL HAVE FROST
SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR LIMITING
HOW WIDESPREAD THE FROST WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE WEST
WINDS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. THIS MAY LIMIT JUST HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP AND FOR HOW LONG.
THESE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF WARM UP BUT
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK ONCE AGAIN FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES, GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE DDC, GCK, HYS, AND LBL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER, COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR ALSO IS BEING USHERED INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING WITH
WINDS TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH AN UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ANTICIPATED
INTO SATURDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...AJOHNSON
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