301
FXUS63 KDDC 181010
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 40
MPH AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR.
- AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF US
HIGHWAY 83 AND PORTIONS OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
- WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 POSSIBLE FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY.
- LOWS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING EXTENDED FROM
NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN COLORADO, WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. FURTHER
NORTH A SECOND COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH WINDS SPEEDS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
FORECASTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB LEVEL EXCEEDING 30
KNOTS. ALSO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND BEGINNING ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TODAY, OUR INITIAL UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
TODAY BRINGING ENHANCED LIFT NORTH OF THE FIRST SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AS THIS UPPER WAVE PASSES.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OUR SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 40 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER BASED ON MIXING POTENTIAL
NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND FORECAST 850MB WINDS.
THESE BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COLDER AIR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. AS
THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THESE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 MPH. GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT THE CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TEMPERATURES TO EASILY FALL BACK INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND PORTIONS OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
BASED ON THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT, A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
283.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER
RIDGE CROSSING THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF WARM UP
TO WESTERN KANSAS, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, DUE
TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS UPPER
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY, USHERING IN ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE WIND GUST VIA MOMENTUM TRANSFER...HOWEVER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY FAVORS GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH BASED ON THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND 850MB WIND SPEEDS LATE IN THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(80%) FOR WINDS GUST AROUND 40 MPH, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
(20-40%) FOR THE HIGHER GUSTS.
FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EARLY THIS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z TODAY
AND 00Z SUNDAY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY AS THEY SHIFT MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM
CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-043-044-061>063-074>076-
084>086.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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