554
FXUS63 KDDC 190801
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
301 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON
- MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WHERE LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR
SKIES, AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S, AREAS OF FROST LOOK PROBABLE.
FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT, AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED A BIT
EASTWARD, UNTIL 15Z.
VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL SWING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN THE WY/SD/MT BORDER REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
CYCLONES COLD FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH ITS PASSAGE, EXPECTING
WINDS TO GET QUITE GUSTY. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH ARE RATHER HIGH (50-80%) ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FA, WITH PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 40 MPH (20-30%) FOR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE IS THE CURRENT CUT-OFF LOW THAT IS SITUATED WELL OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. IT ISN'T UNTIL THE INFLUENCE OF
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PICK IT AND MOVE
EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS VICINITY, GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. EXACT NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN UNTIL WE GET A BETTER PICTURE ON
A MORE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
THOUGH EVEN WITH A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE FA, COULD STILL LEND
TO AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION.
NEVERTHELESS, NBM POPS MAINTAINING 40-60%, WITH A HIGHER
EMPHASIS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR
DDC AND GCK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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