186
FXUS63 KDDC 191600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MONDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY MORNING.
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC WILL OFFER THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WHERE LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR
SKIES, AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S, AREAS OF FROST LOOK PROBABLE.
FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT, AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED A BIT
EASTWARD, UNTIL 15Z.
VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL SWING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN THE WY/SD/MT BORDER REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
CYCLONES COLD FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH ITS PASSAGE, EXPECTING
WINDS TO GET QUITE GUSTY. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH ARE RATHER HIGH (50-80%) ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FA, WITH PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 40 MPH (20-30%) FOR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE NEXT SYSTEM OF
NOTE IS THE CURRENT CUT-OFF LOW THAT IS SITUATED WELL OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. IT ISN'T UNTIL THE INFLUENCE OF
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PICK IT AND MOVE
EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS VICINITY, GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. EXACT NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN UNTIL WE GET A BETTER PICTURE ON
A MORE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
THOUGH EVEN WITH A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE FA, COULD STILL LEND
TO AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION.
NEVERTHELESS, NBM POPS MAINTAINING 40-60%, WITH A HIGHER
EMPHASIS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VFR/SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS
IMPACTING AVIATION OPERATIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
28-30 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH 00Z MON. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
INCLUDED LLWS WHERE APPROPRIATE. WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH 12Z MON AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER 15Z MON,
EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS AT ALL AIRPORTS, GUSTING 36-38 KTS.
SOME GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE LIKELY, PARTICULARLY AT GCK, MIDDAY
MONDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
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