715  
FXUS63 KDDC 200426  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1126 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
- STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MONDAY.  
 
- ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/LIGHT FREEZE WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY  
MORNING.  
 
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
- A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC WILL OFFER THE NEXT  
CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
MIDDAY INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS IMPRESSIVELY PERFECTLY  
CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, ACROSS ALL OF KANSAS AND  
ADJOINING STATES, IN A WIDESCALE DRY SUBSIDENT REGIME. STRONG  
SURFACE HIGH THAT BROUGHT THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL SEASON TO  
THE WESTERN ZONES AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING,  
HAD RAPIDLY DIVED WELL INTO TEXAS AT MIDDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST  
RETURN FLOW TO ESTABLISH QUICKLY AND STRONGLY. SWLY DOWNSLOPE  
COMPRESSION AND THE FULL INSOLATION WILL SEND TEMPERATURES  
EASILY INTO THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON, DESPITE THE COLD  
START NEAR FREEZING.  
 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT, IN  
RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, WITH WINDS NEAR 2000 FT AGL  
NEAR 50 MPH TONIGHT. THIS MIXING ALONG WITH STRONG WARM  
ADVECTION AT 850 MB, BACK TO ABOVE 20C, WILL STRONGLY DETER  
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES SUNRISE MONDAY WILL BE MUCH  
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING, WITH MANY LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE  
LOWER 50S.  
 
THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH SW KS ABOUT 10 AM  
MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE CONTINUED FULL SUNSHINE AND  
DRY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STRONG NORTH WINDS. AS SUCH,  
FOLLOWED THE 90%ILE OF THE NBM IN THE WIND GRIDS MONDAY, WHICH  
IS NEAR THE PREFERRED STRONGEST 12Z MAV GUIDANCE. 12Z MAV  
FORECASTS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 MPH AT GCK 1 PM MONDAY, AND THE  
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS, AND  
NORTHWEST OF DDC. FULL SUNSHINE AND NWLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENTS  
WILL COUNTERACT COLD ADVECTION, SUCH THAT LOWER 70S WILL BE  
COMMON MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS ON THE WAY  
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, AS ANOTHER 1025 MB SURFACE RIDGE  
BUILDS OVER SW KS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. JUST LIKE THIS  
MORNING, NBM LOOKS SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM, AND EXPECT 30S TO  
BE COMMON SUNRISE TUESDAY. NUDGED TUESDAY MORNING LOWS DOWN  
TOWARD THE COLDEST GUIDANCE, BELOW NBM GUIDANCE. MOS GUIDANCE  
AND CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS PROBABLE ACROSS  
WESTERN ZONES AND THE ARKANSAS VALLEY. PER LOCAL POLICY, DDC  
DOES NOT ISSUE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES PAST OCTOBER 20 FOR  
NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL LEAVE IT TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO DECIDE ON THE  
NEED FOR A FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE FOR ZONES FURTHER SOUTHEAST  
TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
DRY BENIGN NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,  
WITH FEW, IF ANY, CLOUDS AND A WARMING TREND. THE WARMEST DAY  
THIS WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY, WELL INTO THE 70S DURING THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED CYCLONE MEADERING OVER THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC, WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY, WILL BE THE FOCUS  
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE  
SOLUTIONS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING  
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, PLACING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE  
NEAR/OVER SW KS ABOUT FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS A  
STALLED/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MAINTAINED SOUTH OF  
SW KS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH OVERRUNNING/STRATIFORM RAIN  
MOST LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. NBM PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN  
(POPS) HAS RISEN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON THIS UPDATE, AND  
THESE WERE ACCEPTED. THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK  
SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF KANSAS, BUT FOR A CUTOFF LOW  
STILL OUT IN THE PACIFIC, IT IS HARD TO TAKE MODEL SOLUTIONS  
WHOLESALE 5 DAYS OUT, EVEN IF THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.  
HOWEVER, THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER CONDITION WILL BE THE WIND  
SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, AND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS  
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL  
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEST DIRECTION  
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH MID MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS  
OF 15-20 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.  
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...TURNER  
AVIATION...BENNETT  
 
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