553
FXUS63 KDDC 071600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS, THROUGH NOVEMBER 17TH.
- STRONG NORTH WINDS SATURDAY, GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH.
- WIDESPREAD HARD/KILLING FREEZES SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY
MORNING.
- RAPID WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
GET OUT AND ENJOY THE DAY TODAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD PEAK INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NICE DAY FOR SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN EVENTUAL SHORT TERM COLDER AIR PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE FROM LOW PRESSURE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY NW WINDS
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH VALUES PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HAVE GONE WITH STRONGER WINDS THAN WHAT
THE NBM WAS ADVERTISING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE BONA FIDE CAA
DURING THE DAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DECREASING INTO THE 0C
TO -5C RANGE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
40S DURING THE DAY. FELT IT WAS BEST TO UNDERCUT THE NBM
SOLUTION, PARTICULARLY FOR THE COLD MONDAY MORNING. LOWS DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO THE 20S SOUTH.
AGAIN, WENT WITH A COOLER AND WINDIER SOLUTION THAN WAS THE NBM
PRODUCED. SOME MINOR GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COOLER AIR PERIOD
WILL NOT LAST THE LONG. A DOWNSLOPE FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK WAA RETURNING
BACK TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS SHOULD DISLODGE THE COLD AIR WITH
HIGHS RETURNING BACK INTO THE 60S WEST AND 50S EAST MONDAY.
THE WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE TEENS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S FOR MUCH OF THE FA. THE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
LINGER MIDWEEK. NONE OF THE LONG TERM MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR
ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SHOWING ANY PRECIPITATION AND A DRY
FORECAST SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SAT, WITH A
CONTINUATION OF VFR/SKC, SCATTERED CIRRUS, AND LIGHT WINDS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AIRPORTS 12-15Z SAT,
FOLLOWED BY INTENSE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING 35-40 KTS.
VFR/SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...TURNER
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