828
FXUS63 KDDC 081706
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1106 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, COLD MONDAY MORNING
- PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A 1036 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IS EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS PREVAILS.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH AND WINDS, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY. I SUPPOSE ELEVATED
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK HEADLINE WORTHY.
THE CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH 850
HPA TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -4C TO 4C RANGE. THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S DURING THE DAY. THE RELATIVELY
STRONG ANTICYCLONE WILL SET UP SHOP DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE MONDAY
MORNING. UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH, WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EVENT WILL DEVELOP. LOWS MONDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM
COLD TEENS IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTH. THE COLD AIR WILL
BE QUICKLY DISLODGED THOUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE. HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S WEST TO THE 50S EAST.
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE TEENS. THIS SUPPORTS MIXDOWN
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THE ENTIRE FA. THE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS SHOW
NO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH MID NOVEMBER AND MOSTLY LIKELY
LATER THAN THAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LED
TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SUSTAINED WINDS FOR ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE 20-25 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30+ KTS
THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER THEY
SHOULD STAY BREEZY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AT 12-20 KTS.
FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD AS THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE OR
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS MINIMAL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TODAY AND IN COMBINATION OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 20% TO 25% RANGE TODAY. AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
MAY RESULT WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
WINDS, AND THE DRY AIRMASS. BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...TATRO
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN
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