447
FXUS63 KDDC 100957
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
357 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST AND A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS
TODAY.
- ROBUST WARM-UP TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S.
- ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY THE WARMEST AS 80F
HIGHS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.
- INCREASING CHANCE OF SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A DEEP
TROUGH, BUT HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS/TIMING THIS FAR OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
OUR COLDEST MORNING OF THE YOUNG COLD SEASON WAS UNDERWAY VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS AUTOMATED STATIONS RECORDING TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20F AS OF THE 09Z (3 AM CST) OBS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE LENGTH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY, AND THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND A SUBSEQUENT RETURN TO SOUTH WIND.
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG, BUT
SOME BREEZY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. THIS SOUTH
WIND WILL ESSENTIALLY RECIRCULATE THE MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR
MASS, SO WE WILL NOT SEE A MARKED WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURE TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS LIKE ELKHART,
WHERE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES OFF THE WARMER HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL MAKE A RUN ON THIS AREA LATE IN THE DAY FOR SOME LOWER TO MID
60S POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS.
A PATTERN CHANGE TO CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
THEN TAKE OVER TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING ABRUPTLY
OVERNIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS DEGC ON WEST WINDS. AS QUICKLY
AS THE DOWNSLOPE SURGE MOVES OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, IT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THANKS TO A SHIFT IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST WIND, THOUGH, WILL
ATTAIN ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SUCH THAT ANY MARGINAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE LARGELY MASKED BY DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. AS
SUCH, DESPITE A SHIFT IN SURFACE WIND TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SKY ROCKET TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
OUR WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM PATTERN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST. IN FACT, OUR
LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH NBM HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC OUTPUT SHOWS PROBABILITIES OF 80F+ FOR
HIGHS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 50 TO 65% WITH 40% CHANCE OF
80+ HIGH AT DDC ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN COUNTER TO REACHING
TEMPERATURES THAT WARM THIS TIME OF YEAR, OTHER THAN THE LOWER SUN
ANGLE OF COURSE, IS MAGNITUDE OF MID AND/OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUD THAT
TENDS TO ADVANCE ON WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF SUCH A DEEP TROUGH AS WE
WILL SEE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ADVANCE ON
THE CENTRAL CONUS, BUT THERE REMAINS VERY HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MATURE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE AND IF/WHEN ONE FORMS,
WHERE IT WILL MATURE (TOO FAR SOUTH?...NORTH?). REGARDLESS, NBM DOES
HAVE SOME 30-40 POPS AS WE GET TO LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE RAIN GIVEN HOW WARM THE AIR MASS WILL BE AHEAD
OF ANY LOW MOVING ACROSS/NEAR KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
VERY LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, A SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP, BUT WIND SPEED
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG, AVERAGING 10 TO 13 KNOTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO THE EVENING MONDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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