768
FXUS63 KDDC 112315
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
70S AND PLACES OUT WEST OVER 80 DEGREES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BEFORE
WINDS WEAKEN
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER LARGE UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE
IN THE FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
REGION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED BY A STRONG AND DEEP
LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND A WEAKER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD AND REACHING THE ROCKIES. THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND UPCOMING ACTIVE WEATHER. THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD BEFORE THE SYSTEM
ARRIVES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND PUSH INTO THE 70S,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A
SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. ENSEMBLES HAVE
THE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE MID-LEVELS AND MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, CAMS HAVE SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING
AROUND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE NAMNST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HAVE MINIMAL CAPE VALUES HARDLY REACHING 1000
J/KG AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS. SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION COMES WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER THE EARLIER SHOWERS CAN BRING AND LIMIT HOW MUCH CAPE IS
CAPABLE OF BUILDING. IN THE SCENARIO WHERE SHEAR AND CAPE IS
MAXIMIZED, MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC SEEMINGLY
CONTINUES TO LEAN IN THE HAMPERING OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH
ALL OF KANSAS REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
ENSEMBLES HAVE MOST OF SW KANSAS SEEING MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FALLING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE CWA, PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. THE WETTEST
AREA HAS OVER AN INCH THROUGH FRIDAY VIA ENSEMBLES. CAMS HAVE THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH BY AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY, BUT
ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWER CHANCES ABOVE 30% FOR MORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.
AFTER THIS WETTER PATTERN EXITS, SW KANSAS WILL BE LEFT WITH
PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ENSEMBLES HAVE A WAVE EJECTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL ROUND
OUT THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
LEAVING LITTLE NOTEWORTHY FORECAST ELEMENTS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A MODEST INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO THE
10-14 KT RANGE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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