743
FXUS63 KDDC 122048
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
248 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES, ABOVE MID-NOVEMBER AVERAGES, FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S EACH
DAY.
- FAIRLY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED AGAIN
UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LATE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
CHANCES DROPPING TO BELOW 15%.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
THE METEOROLOGICAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO TRANSITION INTO
A PRIMARILY ZONAL REGIME WITH NO NOTABLE PRESSURE SYSTEMS AROUND THE
CONUS IN THE UPPER-LEVELS. SUBTLE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OFF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO SW KANSAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER
REGIME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF
LIGHTER WINDS, DRY WEATHER, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE 70S, WHICH IS OVER 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. THIS IS LIKELY TO STAY UNTIL COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
QUELL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. EVEN WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
MEETING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT. HOWEVER
WITH THE DRY WEATHER, TYPICAL FIRE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL BE
ADVISED.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS OVER THE PERIOD OF THIS PATTERN. THROUGH SATURDAY HIGHS
ARE FORECAST AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS AROUND 40 DEGREES. SOME
DAY- TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE TANGIBLE
IMPORTANCE IS MINIMAL WITH HOW THE SERENE THE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY BE. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE TEASED RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE CONTINUITY OR AGREEMENT THE PAST FEW
DAYS. NOW THE CHANCES HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY TO AROUND 10%
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A A TROUGH THAT
ENSEMBLES HAVE DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST AND MAKING ITS' WAY
NEAR KANSAS ON SUNDAY. COMPARATIVELY ENSEMBLES HAVE IT
DISSOLVING WELL BEFORE SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTING THE CWA. THE SAME
ENSEMBLES ARE AGAIN HINTING AT ANOTHER WAVE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BRINING PRECIPITATION, BUT WITH HOW INACCURATE THE
FORECAST OF THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS BEEN, LITTLE STOCK
SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THAT UNTIL IT IS MUCH CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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