662
FXUS63 KDDC 130522
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1122 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES, ABOVE MID-NOVEMBER AVERAGES, FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S EACH
DAY.
- FAIRLY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED AGAIN
UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LATE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
CHANCES DROPPING TO BELOW 15%.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
THE METEOROLOGICAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO TRANSITION INTO
A PRIMARILY ZONAL REGIME WITH NO NOTABLE PRESSURE SYSTEMS AROUND THE
CONUS IN THE UPPER-LEVELS. SUBTLE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OFF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO SW KANSAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER
REGIME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF
LIGHTER WINDS, DRY WEATHER, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE 70S, WHICH IS OVER 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. THIS IS LIKELY TO STAY UNTIL COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
QUELL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. EVEN WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
MEETING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT. HOWEVER
WITH THE DRY WEATHER, TYPICAL FIRE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL BE
ADVISED.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS OVER THE PERIOD OF THIS PATTERN. THROUGH SATURDAY,
HIGHS ARE FORECAST AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS AROUND 40 DEGREES.
SOME DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE TANGIBLE
IMPORTANCE IS MINIMAL WITH HOW THE SERENE THE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY BE. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE TEASED RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE CONTINUITY OR AGREEMENT THE PAST FEW
DAYS. NOW THE CHANCES HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY TO AROUND 10% SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TROUGH THAT ENSEMBLES HAVE
DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST AND MAKING ITS WAY NEAR KANSAS ON
SUNDAY. COMPARATIVELY, ENSEMBLES HAVE IT DISSOLVING WELL BEFORE
SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTING THE CWA. THE SAME ENSEMBLES ARE AGAIN
HINTING AT ANOTHER WAVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINING
PRECIPITATION, BUT WITH HOW INACCURATE THE FORECAST OF THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS BEEN, LITTLE STOCK SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THAT
UNTIL IT IS MUCH CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
MID MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AT LESS THAN 12 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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