411
FXUS63 KDDC 272005
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
205 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
- SMALL PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
SATURDAY MORNING
- MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL ON MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
19Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE IN THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINING WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS MODERATED THE
COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO AROUND 2-5 (C) IN THE 850
MB LAYER.
TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE IN THE WEST DAMPEN A LITTLE WITH A
SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES WHICH
WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOWARDS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE MORNING WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE
40S. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD MID LAYER CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST THE AREA OF MORE INTENSE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF AN ELKHART TO WAKEENEY LINE WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING TO
AROUND 30 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST
I KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S AND WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER HIGHS SHOULD NEAR 60.
SATURDAY A MORE STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVES INT FROM COLORADO DURING THE
NIGHT PUSHING A SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 06Z SATURDAY
MORNING. GIVEN HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MAINLY THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AND THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD STAY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS AROUND HAYS SEEING
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP AROUND 12Z. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WE SHOULD
SEE WINDS INCREASE RAPIDLY AND TEMPERATURES STAY STEADY TO SLOWLY
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. ANY RAIN THAT IS FALLING DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE TIME FRAME FOR SNOW POTENTIAL IS BRIEF
(~3 HOURS). WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME INTENSE AS RAP
MODELS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IS
HINTING AT 40-45 KT GUSTS DURING THE DAY. I OPTED TO INCREASE WIND
GUSTS TO A 50/50 NBM 50TH/90TH PERCENTILE TO REFLECT WIND GUSTS
CLOSER TO THIS SCENARIO.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY COLD WITH A 1034 MB HIGH PASSING THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE WINDS SWITCH
TO THE EAST COMBINING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-8 (C) HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER 20S.
MONDAY'S SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AND THE AREA
OF LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE IS STARTING TO SHOW A BETTER AREA OF
BANDS OF SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. POPS
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 30% AND PROBABILITIES OF > 1 INCH OF SNOW
RANGE AROUND 50% FROM THE VARIOUS LONG TERM ENSEMBLES. SO FAR WINDS
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND AT THIS POINT THIS SYSTEM WOULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
AN INTENSIFYING LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
WINDS AND WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KTS AND CEILINGS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6 KFT WITH 20%
CHANCE OF MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY CLOSE TO 18Z FOR DDC AND HYS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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