841
FXUS63 KDDC 011603
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1003 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOR THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST DECEMBER 10TH.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGS STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
AIR WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE
CITY, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RAP MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEEP, POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH ENTERING INTO COLORADO FROM UTAH. A LOW-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CO-LOCATED AND SITUATED IN CENTRAL COLORADO.
CAMS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM INTO KANSAS
BRINGING SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THIS WINTER
STORM SYSTEM, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
CST MONDAY. IT CONSISTS OF FORD COUNTY AND TO THE EAST AND THE
NORTH.
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS. VERY LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 3-4 AM CST. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ELLIS COUNTY. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS CONTINUE
TO BE VARIABLE WITH IT DEPENDING ON WHERE BANDS SITUATED ALONG A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST AXIS. ENSEMBLES HAVE A LINE OF 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS MOVING IN FROM GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. GARDEN CITY
MAY BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST THAT MEASURABLE SNOW REACHES WITH
THE HAYS AREA HOLDING THE BEST ODDS TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AGAIN, THIS ASSUMES THE BAND DEVELOPS AS
ADVERTISED AND ARRIVES IN THE AREA DURING PEAK SNOWFALL RATES AT
AROUND 0.5" PER HOUR. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
TROUGH, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY AND ONLY PLACE THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES IN THE CWA FOR AROUND 6 HOURS FROM THE 4 AM - 10
AM CST. WINDS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BUT VISIBILITIES MAY STILL DROP IN AREAS OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. TRAVEL PRECAUTIONS ARE ADVISED WITH SNOW, ICE, OR
DROPPED VISIBILITIES. BESIDES TRAVEL IMPACTS, THIS WILL BE A
PRETTY BENIGN AND GENERIC WINTER STORM SYSTEM. THE ENSEMBLES
HAVE THE SW PORTION OF THE ADVISORY RECEIVING UP TO 0.5 INCHES
OF SNOW. AMOUNTS INCREASE NORTHEASTWARD WITH HAYS FORECAST
AROUND 2 INCHES. ENSEMBLES HAVE AROUND A 25-40% CHANCE TO EXCEED
2 INCHES AROUND HAYS. 3 INCHES IS THE UPPER BOUND WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE BEING <10%. AGAIN LOCALIZED AREAS MAY
RECEIVE MUCH MORE OR MUCH LESS SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ONLY A FEW MILES. MEANS REMAIN BELOW AN INCH
EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
AFTER THE SNOW AND CLOUD COVER CLEARS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH AND PASS FREEZING. MOST SNOW WILL MELT BY THE END OF
THE DAY EXCEPT IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. BEYOND THAT,
ENSEMBLES ARE VERY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL WARM UP FARTHER INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50
DEGREES. THIS WILL SURELY MELT ANY REMAINING SNOW FROM MONDAY.
HIGHS THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 40-50S. NO OTHER VERY
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MILD WINDS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DRY WEATHER FOR A QUIET
WEEK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY TO DISRUPT THE
TRANQUILITY AS A WEAK SYSTEM GLANCES THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
ENSEMBLES HAVE AROUND A 10% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN FAR WEST
KANSAS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL. MORE CONCRETE DETAILS WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
REMAINING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING AT 16Z MON WILL EITHER
DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF THE AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH VFR RETURNING TO ALL AIRPORTS BY 21-22Z. VFR/SKC
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KTS, FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD, WITH A
W/NWLY COMPONENT. AFTER 15Z TUE, S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL
AIRPORTS, GUSTING 20-25 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-065-066.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...TURNER
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