530
FXUS63 KDDC 020453
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1053 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOR THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST DECEMBER 10TH.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGS STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
AIR WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE
CITY, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND IMPACTS MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WAS PASSING OVER SW KS AT MIDDAY,
WITH THE LAST OF THE SNOWBANDS EXITING EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR THE SKY RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNSET. WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE AND SUNSHINE, WESTERN ZONES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF
DODGE CITY WILL FAIL TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. CLEAR AND COLD
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS, AND EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL PRODUCE SUNRISE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS. LIGHT SWLY
DOWNSLOPE WILL MANAGE TO KEEP A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE 20S.
ARCTIC AIR ERODES TUESDAY AS MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKS TO ZONAL,
ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES,
BACK CLOSE TO EARLY DECEMBER NORMALS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST
ZONES NEAR HAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 40S TUESDAY AS SNOWCOVER
MELTS. AFTER 9 AM TUESDAY, SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AS
RETURN FLOW FULLY ESTABLISHES, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO SWEEP THROUGH SW KS BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN
NBM GUIDANCE, AND 12Z MOS GUIDANCE IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER
THAN NBM ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. GIVEN A 1035 MB CANADIAN
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING DOWN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, OVER AT LEAST
PARTIAL SNOWPACK, THE COLDER/WINDIER SOLUTIONS WILL LIKELY
VERIFY WEDNESDAY. PER COORDINATION INCREASED WINDS TO THE 90%ILE
OF THE NBM AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES.
MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
6 PM WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE, ALREADY QUITE WEAK, IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IN ENTERS CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, FAVORING
THE WESTERN ZONES, WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT,
AND MANY MODELS, INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND MANY GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS, ARE COMPLETELY DRY. AS SUCH, NBM POPS ARE NECESSARILY
VERY LOW. GIVEN THE WEAKENING SYSTEM AND LIMITED MOISTURE, ANY
SNOWFALL/IMPACTS WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NIL.
COLD SURFACE RIDGING OVER SW KS 6 AM THURSDAY WILL DELIVER
ANOTHER COLD MORNING IN THE TEENS, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE CONSIDERABLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING EJECTING SYSTEM,
PUTTING A DETERENT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. THE PATTERN
REPEATS, WITH RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHING AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE RECIRCULATED
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR, WITH A COLD AFTERNOON IN THE 30S.
MODELS FALL INTO DISARRAY WITH THE TIMING DETAILS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT 1-2 DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE CUTOFF FROM SW KS DURING THIS TIME, SO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE THE
COLD FRONTS. TEMPERATURES AND WIND DIRECTION WILL FLUCUATE
MODESTLY AS THE COLD FRONTS PASS, BUT A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WITH NO IMPACTS IS EXPECTED BENEATH BENIGN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT <15 KTS OUT OF THE
WEST BEFORE SHIFTING TO MOSTLY VARIABLE. BY AROUND 0Z, CLOUD COVER
IS FORECASTED TO MOVE IN, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...KBJ
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