788
FXUS63 KDDC 030804
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
204 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOR THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST DECEMBER 11TH.
- WINDY AND MUCH COLDER, WITH LOW CLOUDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN FAR
WESTERN KANSAS. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER, WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO EARLY DECEMBER NORMALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURE AND WIND FLUCTUATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
CURRENTLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING SOME VIRGA
ALONG AN AXIS OF ROUGHLY LA CROSS TO SYRACUSE. THE OBSERVATIONS,
INCLUDING AT HAYS, HAVE YET TO REGISTER ANYTHING HITTING THE GROUND.
THE EXPANSIVENESS OF THE VIRGA HAS BEGUN TO ERODE WITH IT EXPECTED
TO BE GONE BY SUNRISE. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALOFT, THE DEEP AND
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAME TO FRUITION AS PROGGED AND IS NOW
DIPPING INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MOST
NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY, THE PRESENTLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 30 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALONG
WITH WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER, SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO SW
KANSAS. THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
LOCATION (LIMITED TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER), BUT WITH
MODERATE FLUCTUATIONS IN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN PRETTY RESILIENT TO PREVIOUS CHANGES IN GUIDANCE. AREAS
ALONG THE BORDER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW (UP TO 75% CHANCE VIA
ENSEMBLES). THOSE SAME AREAS, AND AS FAR EAST AS ULYSSES HAVE OVER A
40% PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 0.5" OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW
WILL LITTLE DIVERGENCE OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WHILE THE FAR WESTERN
KANSAS' FORECAST HAS HELD PAT, THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IT LARGELY
THE REST OF THE AREA. SOME CAM RUNS HAVE SNOW REACHING MUCH OF THE
AREA, INCLUDING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION ARE NEAR
ZERO (<15% VIA ENSEMBLES). THAT SAID A COUPLE STRAY SNOWFLAKES CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. REGARDLESS, EVEN IN WESTERN AREAS THAT COULD SEE
MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. MODELED
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES TO BE LOW AT AROUND 0.5". WITH A MORE
SUBTLE FORCING AND LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND NOT BE TOO IMPACTFUL. THE WINTER STORM SEVERITY
INDEX ONLY HAS A 20% FOR MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. WHILE TRAVEL
PRECAUTIONS ARE ADVISED, TRANSPORTATION AND COMMERCE ARE NOT FORECAST
TO BE TOO HEAVILY IMPACTED. LOWERED CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST
IMPACTFUL ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM.
BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE LARGELY EVACUATED. A WEAK FRONT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WINDS WILL BE LARGELY LIGHT ENOUGH TO
NOT WARRANT NOTABLE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. ENSEMBLES HAVE THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFT TO A PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL KICK OFF A VERY DRY AND SEASONAL PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE VERY LOW WITH ENSEMBLE
CHANCES <5%. AFTER THURSDAY WARMS UP FROM A COOLER WEDNESDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40-50S PRIMARILY WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR SW
KANSAS IN EARLY DECEMBER. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH EVEN TO
QUELL FIRE WEATHER RISK. NO PRECIPITATION, NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND
PLEASANT WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL CULMINATE IN A VERY QUIET AND
INSIGNIFICANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
(<10KTS). LATER IN THE PERIOD, AROUND 10Z, STRONGER WINDS AND LOW
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS INTO ALL TERMINALS WITH A
NEAR-SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOW CEILINGS, AND LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z. THE CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO RECOVER NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS THE CLOUD COVER ERODES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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