438
FXUS63 KDDC 031605
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1005 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOR THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST DECEMBER 12TH.
- CLOUDY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
- CONTINUED COLD THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NORMAL FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NO
IMPACTS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
CURRENTLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING SOME
VIRGA ALONG AN AXIS OF ROUGHLY LA CROSS TO SYRACUSE. THE
OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING AT HAYS, HAVE YET TO REGISTER ANYTHING
HITTING THE GROUND. THE EXPANSIVENESS OF THE VIRGA HAS BEGUN TO
ERODE WITH IT EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY SUNRISE. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ALOFT, THE DEEP AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAME TO
FRUITION AS PROGGED AND IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE FOUR CORNER
STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MOST NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY, THE PRESENTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 30 MPH OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER,
SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO SW KANSAS. THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN LOCATION (LIMITED TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND
COLORADO BORDER), BUT WITH MODERATE FLUCTUATIONS IN CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY RESILIENT TO
PREVIOUS CHANGES IN GUIDANCE. AREAS ALONG THE BORDER HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW (UP TO 75% CHANCE VIA ENSEMBLES). THOSE
SAME AREAS, AND AS FAR EAST AS ULYSSES HAVE OVER A 40%
PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 0.5" OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW
WILL LITTLE DIVERGENCE OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WHILE THE FAR
WESTERN KANSAS' FORECAST HAS HELD PAT, THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY
IT LARGELY THE REST OF THE AREA. SOME CAM RUNS HAVE SNOW
REACHING MUCH OF THE AREA, INCLUDING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283,
ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION ARE NEAR ZERO (<15% VIA ENSEMBLES). THAT
SAID A COUPLE STRAY SNOWFLAKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. REGARDLESS,
EVEN IN WESTERN AREAS THAT COULD SEE MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTINUES TO BE LOW AT AROUND 0.5". WITH A MORE SUBTLE FORCING
AND LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND NOT BE TOO IMPACTFUL. THE WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX
ONLY HAS A 20% FOR MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. WHILE TRAVEL
PRECAUTIONS ARE ADVISED, TRANSPORTATION AND COMMERCE ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE TOO HEAVILY IMPACTED. LOWERED CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM.
BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE LARGELY EVACUATED. A WEAK FRONT
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WINDS WILL BE LARGELY LIGHT
ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT NOTABLE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. ENSEMBLES
HAVE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFT TO A PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WILL KICK OFF A VERY DRY AND SEASONAL PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE VERY LOW WITH ENSEMBLE CHANCES <5%. AFTER THURSDAY WARMS UP
FROM A COOLER WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40-50S
PRIMARILY WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR SW KANSAS IN EARLY DECEMBER.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH EVEN TO QUELL FIRE WEATHER
RISK. NO PRECIPITATION, NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND PLEASANT WINDS
WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL CULMINATE IN A VERY QUIET AND
INSIGNIFICANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE AIRPORTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THU, GUSTING
25-28 KTS. ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THIS TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRPORTS. THE ONLY EXPECTION MAY BE LBL,
WHERE SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW HOURS OF -SN ARE POSSIBLE
00-06Z THU. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH 12Z THU, AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER SW KS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...TURNER
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