075
FXUS63 KDDC 032000
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOR THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS, THROUGH AT LEAST DECEMBER 12TH.
- CLOUDY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
- CONTINUED COLD THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
NORMAL FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NO
IMPACTS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
MIDDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS ALL
OF SW KS, WITH COLD ADVECTION IN PROGRESS. BETWEEN CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION AND THICKENING/EXPANDING STRATUS, TEMPERATURES
WILL EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 30S OR NEAR
40 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AT MIDDAY, WILL
CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THICK
CLOUDS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. KDDC RADAR SHOWS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATING ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER, WITH INCREASING
VIRGA, AND LIGHT SNOW REPORTED ALREADY AT LAMAR. AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES (MAINLY WEST OF
US 83 AND ADJACENT TO COLORADO) THROUGH TONIGHT, ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE'S ASCENT. SNOW
GRIDS CONTINUE TO CARRY AMOUNTS NEAR 1/2 INCH ACROSS THESE
ZONES, BUT MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH LIGHT SNOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO KANSAS TONIGHT. SOME MODELS SUCH AS 12Z NAM/ARW PREDICT
1-2 INCHES ACROSS STANTON/MORTON COUNTIES, WHILE GLOBAL MODELS,
THEIR ENSEMBLES, AND NBM-BASED PROBABILITY ARE ALL MUCH DRIER.
BELIEVE CURRENT FORECAST IS A REASONABLE MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH
WITH LIGHT <1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE HIGHER WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL REMAIN RELEGATED TO
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TONIGHT, BEFORE CLOUDS START CLEARING OUT
BY SUNRISE. STRONG SURFACE RIDGING >1030 MB IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO SW KS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING WINDS TO
DECREASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GIVEN HOW COLD THE INCOMING AIR
MASS IS, MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL EASILY INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INTERFERE WITH
THE EFFICIENCY OF RADATIONAL COOLING.
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY, AS IT ENTERS CONFLUENT
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE GRADUALLY TAKES OVER. DESPITE THE
RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND A RETURN FLOW SOUTH BREEZE, WE WILL BE
RECIRCULATING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR THURSDAY, FOR ANOTHER
UNCOMFORTABLY COLD AFTERNOON IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCALES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO EARLY DECEMBER
NORMALS FRIDAY, WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 AT 3 PM.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, A VERY QUIET FORECAST
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. A SERIES OF DRY COLD
FRONTS WILL CONTINUE, WITH ASSORTED WIND SHIFTS AND MINOR
TEMPERATURE FLUCUATIONS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS EXCHANGES
ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BOTH SUNRISE AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR EARLY DECEMBER NORMALS.
A WARMING TREND REMAINS EVIDENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
NBM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CLIMBING INTO THE 60S.
NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A STRONG PHASE OF THE PNA SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WITH A STRONG RIDGE WEST AND A
STRONG TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER SW KS FOR MANY DAYS, WHICH IS A VERY
DRY PATTERN FOR SW KS DURING THE COLD SEASON. INDEED, NBM IS
COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 10TH, AND ECMWF IS DRY
THROUGH ITS 10-DAY RUN THROUGH DECEMBER 12TH. CPC OUTLOOKS
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION INTO MID DECEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE AIRPORTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THU, GUSTING
25-28 KTS. ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THIS TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRPORTS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE LBL,
WHERE SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW HOURS OF -SN ARE POSSIBLE 00-06Z
THU. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z
THU, AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER SW KS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
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