761
FXUS63 KDDC 151704
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1104 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DOWNSLOPE AND WARMING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN AND BREEZY/STRONG NNW WINDS WITH DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
WE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN STARTING
TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER WITH VALUES IN THE 60S NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. A SFC
TROF WILL FRAGMENT AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL. SOME MINOR GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK, SO OVERALL WIND MAGNITUDES WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. FOR TONIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTED NEAR
NORMAL LOWS WITH VALUES IN THE 20S.
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
FIRMLY BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA. LOWS WILL CONTINUE REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
WITH 20S. THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS. MID TO
UPPER 60S LOOKS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST HALF OF THE FA. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BUSINESS WEEK WILL TREND WARMER. LOWS
ABOVE FREEZING LOOKS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. SPEAKING OF
THURSDAY, A DRY FROPA IS STILL PROGGED DURING THE DAY. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THIS COOL DOWN WILL ONLY LAST A DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS FRIDAY NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS
ON THIS DAY. THERE MIGHT BE A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
GIVEN THE WARMTH AND RESULTANT LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
MORE OF SAME IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS. THE 00Z MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING ANOTHER DRY FROPA
DURING THE DAY. SO, WE MAY SEE A DIP IN TEMPERATURES,
PARTICULARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ONE THING THAT IS
CONTINUED TO BE FORECAST BY BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS
WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS IS A DRY FORECAST CONTINUING
FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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