804
FXUS63 KDDC 161010
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
410 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM/DOWNSLOPE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- DRY FROPA/GUSTY THURSDAY
- MORE WARMTH/DOWNSLOPE FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
INCREASING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY. A DOWNSLOPE WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TO AROUND
60F ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
TODAY, BUT LIGHT IN MAGNITUDE. AS A RESULT, NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EVEN GIVEN WITH THE WARMTH. LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL START TO TREND WARMER AS WELL. UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH ABOVE FREEZING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING.
A DRY FROPA IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN COOLER HIGHS WITH 40S IN THE NORTH AND 50S IN THE SOUTH.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER THAN NBM WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER
WIND POTENTIAL. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
15% TO 25% RANGE, SO THERE COULD BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE
WINDS AND RH'S.
THE COOL DOWN WILL ONLY LAST ONE DAY. ON FRIDAY, MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IS EXPECTED. WITH THE WAA, 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. THIS SUPPORTS
MIXDOWN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15% TO 25% RANGE, SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
DAY FRIDAY. IT WILL CERTAINLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, YET ANOTHER DRY FROPA IS INDICATED IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICK
OR NOT THE FRONT IS WITH A RESULTANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
THAT DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. A LIGHT W TO NW WIND 5-10 KT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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