178
FXUS63 KDDC 162000
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS THE
SREF INDICATES A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD IN QUESTION. DRIER AIR ALREADY
DOMINATING THE LOWER/MID LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE ENHANCED
LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY, USHERING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
PRECIP CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
MORE OF A CONCERN WILL BE HOW STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY IN
WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THE LATEST SREF DOES SHOW A FIELD OF 50KT H85 WINDS
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY THURSDAY WITHIN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO OUR NORTH IN NEBRASKA AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS EAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST NEAR AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VERY GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY, HOWEVER, THE LATEST NBM ONLY SHOWS A
10-20% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH TOWARD EARLY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND A SMALL PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR HIGH WIND
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE TONIGHT
DESPITE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO DRIFTING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH THE HREF INDICATING A WIDESPREAD 10-30% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
DIPPING BELOW 30F, EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S(F) TO THE
LOWER/MID 30S(F). WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AS DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING SLOWLY DEEPENS IN
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA, PUSHING
H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 10C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 12C IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CONSIDERING THE HREF PAINTS ONLY A 10-30% PROBABILITY
OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 55F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO A 50-70%
PROBABILITY OF TOPPING 60F OUT NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, LOOK FOR WIDE
RANGING AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S(F) EAST TO THE MID/UPPER
60S(F) IN OUR EXTREME WEST. COLDER AIR SURGING SOUTH INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.
EXPECT HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S(F).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE GENERALLY AFTER 23-01Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
OF WESTERN KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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