334
FXUS63 KDDC 170400
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST DECEMBER
23RD. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
- STRONG NORTH WINDS THURSDAY, AVERAGING 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 50 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A TROUGH AXIS IS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS THE
SREF INDICATES A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD IN QUESTION. DRIER AIR ALREADY
DOMINATING THE LOWER/MID LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE ENHANCED
LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY, USHERING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
PRECIP CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
MORE OF A CONCERN WILL BE HOW STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY IN
WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THE LATEST SREF DOES SHOW A FIELD OF 50KT H85 WINDS
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY THURSDAY WITHIN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO OUR NORTH IN NEBRASKA AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS EAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST NEAR AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
RIGHT NOW, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VERY GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY, HOWEVER, THE LATEST NBM ONLY SHOWS A
10-20% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH TOWARD EARLY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND A SMALL PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR HIGH WIND
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
TONIGHT DESPITE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
COLORADO DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE HREF INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
10-30% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW 30F, EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S(F) TO THE LOWER/MID 30S(F). WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING SLOWLY DEEPENS IN
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA,
PUSHING H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 10C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 12C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CONSIDERING THE HREF
PAINTS ONLY A 10-30% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 55F
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF TOPPING 60F
OUT NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, LOOK FOR WIDE RANGING AFTERNOON
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S(F) EAST TO THE MID/UPPER 60S(F) IN OUR
EXTREME WEST. COLDER AIR SURGING SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
HELP DROP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. EXPECT
HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S(F).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z WED, WITH
VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 18Z WED, SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AT ALL AIRPORTS, GUSTING 25-30 KTS. AFTER 00Z THU, A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED, WITH SWLY WINDS NEAR 50 KTS
NEAR 2K FT AGL. INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN ALL TAFS AFTER
00Z THU. A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED NEAR
THE END OF THIS PERIOD, AROUND 06Z THU, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
INCREASE IN NW WINDS. INTENSE N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED DAYLIGHT
THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...TURNER
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