415
FXUS63 KDDC 171605
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1005 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST CHRISTMAS.
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF DECEMBER.
- STRONG NORTH WINDS THURSDAY, AVERAGING 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 55 MPH. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE EXPECTED.
- ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUED ACROSS KANSAS AT MIDNIGHT. WITH ONLY A
FEW CIRRUS, AND WINDS TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
SUNRISE WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
EFFICIENTLY SEND ALL ZONES BELOW FREEZING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER NOON, AS RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHES IN RESPONSE TO 997 MB LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR
DENVER. INCREASED SOUTH WIND GRIDS TO THE 90%ILE OF THE NBM,
PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN ZONES AND FAVORED US 83 CORRIDOR DOWN
TO ELKHART, WHERE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WITH
EFFICIENT SWLY DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION, INCREASED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S, WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES
REACHING AT LEAST 70. MUCH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL AS
OF LATE, AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE IN THIS UNUSUALLY
WARM/DRY PATTERN, WITH INCREASINGLY DRIED OUT TOPSOILS.
AN INTENSE 520 DM CLOSED LOW OVER ALBERTA AT 6 PM WEDNESDAY, IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO NEAR FARGO 6 AM THURSDAY, AND DEEPEN
FURTHER TO NEAR 515 DM OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH SW KS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND DESPITE THE NOCTURNAL TIMING, CONTINUED TO
KEEP WINDS NEAR THE 90%ILE OF THE NBM. INTENSE COLD/DRY
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, UNDER THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE POWERFUL UPPER MIDWEST CYCLONE. THURSDAY AFTERNOON 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 0C, AND IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER, STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 40S. WIND MAGNITUDES
ARE A CONCERN, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INTENSE NWLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE THURSDAY. MODELED 850 MB WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KTS DURING
PEAK MIXING, SO GUSTS OF THAT 55 MPH CALIBER ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
HIGH WIND WARNING (SUSTAINED 40 MPH/GUSTS 58 MPH) WILL NOT BE
REQUIRED, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF MIXING THAT WILL BE ACHIEVED IN THE
SUNNY DRY ENVIRONMENT, AS 700 MB WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS
70 KTS/80 MPH PER GFS SOLUTIONS. KEPT WIND GRIDS NEAR THE
STRONGEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
10 AM - 2 PM.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY
EVENING, AND REVERT RIGHT BACK TO SWLY DOWNSLOPE AND STRONG
WARMING FRIDAY. AGAIN, NBM AND MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY
TOO COOL. MODELS SUGGEST SUDDEN RAPID WARMING FRIDAY, AND THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY NOT WARM ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY WEST. TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING OVER THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE A CHALLENGE,
WITH A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING BEHIND ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT. BUT CERTAINLY, NO ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS, GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE
IN AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT
ONLY ACROSS SW KS BUT MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. RECORD OR NEAR
RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED ON AT LEAST SOME OF THESE DAYS,
INCLUDING CHRISTMAS, WHEN ENSEMBLE AVERAGES SHOW 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 20C. CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR NEAR 90% PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER.
A HIGH CONFIDENCE COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE IN THIS
SYNOPTIC REGIME. SW KS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH CHRISTMAS, WITH
STRONG PROBABILITY SW KS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
DECEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT GENERALLY AFTER
17-19Z AS AN ANCHORED LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
IN EASTERN COLORADO. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30KT ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REDUCE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO NEAR 15% ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES (MORTON COUNTY)
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH. ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY NOON THROUGH 5 PM.
THURSDAY, AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF SW KS. DESPITE STRONG COLD ADVECTION, STRONG DRY
ADVECTION WILL STILL LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO 15-20%
ALL ZONES. INTENSE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY, AVERAGING 30-40 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 50-55
MPH. ANY OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THURSDAY
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-077>079.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...TURNER
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