408
FXUS63 KDDC 171950
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTH WINDS THURSDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITHIN A WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. NEAR THE SURFACE, A TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO.
DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE SREF
INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT, AND FARTHER EAST INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY, SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL REINFORCE A
DRIER AIR MASS ALREADY DOMINATING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, HELPING
KEEP ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR A STRONGER WIND EVENT TOMORROW AS THE SREF SHOWS AN
EXTREME TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
KANSAS IN THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT
SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA, RESULTING IN A FIELD OF 50-55KT H85
WINDS SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA. CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A MORE
IMMEDIATE RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE WITH THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN FURTHER MIXING LATER IN THE DAY WITH
50KT H85 WINDS STILL INDICATED. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HREF
WITH AN INITIAL 40-50% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50MPH
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN A 50-80% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS
TOPPING 50MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY NORTHEAST
OF A SYRACUSE TO DODGE CITY TO PRATT LINE. THE INITIAL HIGH WIND
WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT DESPITE A STRONG
COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE HREF INDICATING A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW 40F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO ONLY A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES SLIPPING BELOW 35F IN WEST CENTRAL/EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S(F) WITH THE LOWER 40S(F)
NOT RULED OUT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS, LOWERING H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR 0C IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TO A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FARTHER SOUTHWEST. CONSIDERING THE HREF
PAINTS A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 45F IN WEST
CENTRAL/CENTRAL KANSAS TO A BETTER THAN 90% PROBABILITY OF ABOVE 45F
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA LINE, EXPECT HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) IN
VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S(F) FARTHER
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, GIVING
WAY TO SOUTHERLIES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, HELPING RETURN UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGHS TO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT GENERALLY AFTER
17-19Z AS AN ANCHORED LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
IN EASTERN COLORADO. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30KT ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. DEVELOPING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING NEAR TO BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL
CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED WIND GUSTS UPWARD OF 50 TO 60
MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM CST /1 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-077>079.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JJOHNSON
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