989
FXUS63 KDDC 172245
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
445 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST DECEMBER
27TH.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE INTENSE NORTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50.
- CRITICAL DANGER OF WILDFIRE SPREAD THURSDAY MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITHIN A
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NEAR THE SURFACE, A TROUGH AXIS IS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO.
DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
THE SREF INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT,
AND FARTHER EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY, SENDING AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL REINFORCE A DRIER AIR MASS ALREADY
DOMINATING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, HELPING KEEP ANY PRECIP
CHANCES AT BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
A STRONGER WIND EVENT TOMORROW AS THE SREF SHOWS AN EXTREME
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT
SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA, RESULTING IN A FIELD OF 50-55KT
H85 WINDS SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA. CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A
MORE IMMEDIATE RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN FURTHER MIXING LATER IN
THE DAY WITH 50KT H85 WINDS STILL INDICATED. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HREF WITH AN INITIAL 40-50% PROBABILITY OF WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 50MPH IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN A 50-80%
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS TOPPING 50MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A SYRACUSE TO DODGE CITY
TO PRATT LINE. THE INITIAL HIGH WIND WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN
UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT DESPITE A
STRONG COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HREF INDICATING A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 40F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO ONLY
A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES SLIPPING BELOW 35F IN WEST
CENTRAL/EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
30S(F) WITH THE LOWER 40S(F) NOT RULED OUT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
LOWERING H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR 0C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO A
LITTLE ABOVE 0C FARTHER SOUTHWEST. CONSIDERING THE HREF PAINTS
A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 45F IN WEST
CENTRAL/CENTRAL KANSAS TO A BETTER THAN 90% PROBABILITY OF ABOVE
45F CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA LINE, EXPECT HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE
40S(F) IN VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO POSSIBLY THE LOWER
50S(F) FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, GIVING WAY TO SOUTHERLIES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, HELPING RETURN UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS TO
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT WIND AND WIND
SHEAR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS. ELEVATED
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z THU. AN INTENSE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL AIRPORTS 06-09Z THU, WITH AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT TO NWLY, AND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS. SWLY LLWS WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO NWLY LLWS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE MARGINALLY AND BRIEFLY
AROUND SUNRISE, AVERAGE 20-30 KTS, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
AFTER THE ONSET OF MIXING, AFTER 15Z THU. NW WIND GUSTS OF
45-50 KTS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE EXPECTED, BUT KEPT VISIBILITY IN THIS
SET OF TAFS UNLIMITED FOR NOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AROUND 00Z
FRI.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. DEVELOPING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING NEAR TO BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL
CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED WIND GUSTS UPWARD OF 50 TO 60
MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM CST /1 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-077>079.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-074-084.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...TURNER
FIRE WEATHER...JJOHNSON
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