795
FXUS63 KDDC 181713
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1113 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND EVENT TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS TO 65 MPH,
LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL, BLOWING DUST, AND POSSIBLE DAMAGE
AND POWER OUTAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY WITH COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY; ANY POTENTIAL FIRES WILL
EASILY BECOME CHALLENGING TO CONTROL AND MAINTAIN
- WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK AND THE HOLIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
MAIN WEATHER STORIES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ONGOING
HIGH WIND EVENT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING,
AND THE ASSOCIATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK THAT WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS RELATED TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 984 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS
USHERED IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY
SHOWED 60-75 MPH WINDS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA, OR EVAPORATING PRECIPITATION, ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH COULD BE ENHANCING THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THOSE
WINDS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THIS HIGH WIND
EVENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS EARLY MORNING WAVE OF
STRONG WINDS, THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A LULL LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG WINDS, IN ASSOCIATION
WITH 60-70 KNOTS 700 MB WINDS, WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH EFFECTIVE MIXING FROM DAYTIME
HEATING, IT IS REASONABLE TO BELIEVE WE WOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT
FRACTION OF THOSE WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE
WINDS UPWARDS TO 55-65 MPH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ROUTE 50 AND
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR, GIVEN NEARLY ALL 00Z SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE HAVE INDICATED THAT ZONE BEING THE AREA TO SEE THE
STRONGEST GUSTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL SEE
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. THESE LEVELS OF WINDS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFICULTY TRAVEL FOR MOST MOTORIST, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN HIGH-
PROFILE VEHICLES, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF TREE AND POWER LINE
DAMAGE(LEADING TO POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES), AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING, LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AND FOR THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY, WE EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES FROM
DEVELOPING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DUE TO VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VSBYS RETURNING VFR THIS EVENING AS
WINDS SUBSIDE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 TO 40KT WITH GUSTS
UPWARD OF 50-55KT THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
GENERALLY AFTER 21-23Z AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS RELAXES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THROUGH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, EVENTUALLY GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20KT ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 08-10Z FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WHILE
LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. EXPECTATION
IS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON, WHERE GUSTS UPWARDS TO 50-65 MPH ARE LIKELY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND OR BELOW 15%. THIS COMBINATION OF WIND AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT TO REFLECT THIS IMPACT. ANY POTENTIAL FIRES WOULD BE VERY
CHALLENGING TO MAINTAIN GIVEN THE CONDITIONS. ANY OUTDOOR
BURNING OR OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT CAN LEAD TO A SPARK IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-085>090.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...BENNETT
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