572
FXUS63 KDDC 182016
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
A PREVAILING DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
SREF INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING EASTWARD OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A WEAKER AND MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND WELL INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS AND MUCH DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE LOWER/MID LEVELS
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE TONIGHT DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EASTWARD FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS, REINFORCING A COLDER AIR MASS
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LATEST HREF SHOWING A WIDESPREAD 60-80%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 30F, EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY
DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S(F), ESPECIALLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FRIDAY AS DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH RESTORE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES TO
WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH H85
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE 12C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEARING 60F IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE HREF
PAINTS A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 55F TO HIGHS
PUSHING THE LOWER 70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE THERE
IS A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES NUDGING ABOVE 70F. ANOTHER
PROJECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL HELP
DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES FROM
DEVELOPING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DUE TO VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VSBYS RETURNING VFR THIS EVENING AS
WINDS SUBSIDE. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 TO 40KT WITH GUSTS
UPWARD OF 50-55KT THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
GENERALLY AFTER 21-23Z AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS RELAXES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THROUGH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, EVENTUALLY GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20KT ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 08-10Z FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WHILE
LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-085>090.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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