737
FXUS63 KDDC 182232
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
432 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS,
THROUGH AT LEAST DECEMBER 28TH.
- WARMER ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WITH
ELEVATED NORTH WINDS AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
A PREVAILING DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
SREF INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING EASTWARD OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A WEAKER AND MORE ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND WELL INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS AND MUCH DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE LOWER/MID LEVELS
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE TONIGHT DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EASTWARD FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS, REINFORCING A COLDER AIR MASS
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LATEST HREF SHOWING A WIDESPREAD 60-80%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 30F, EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY
DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S(F), ESPECIALLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FRIDAY AS DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH RESTORE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES TO
WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH H85
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE 12C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEARING 60F IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE HREF
PAINTS A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 55F TO HIGHS
PUSHING THE LOWER 70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE THERE
IS A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES NUDGING ABOVE 70F. ANOTHER
PROJECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL HELP
DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
STRONG NW WINDS STILL ONGOING AT THE AIRPORTS AT 2230Z WILL
DIMINISH VERY RAPIDLY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET/00Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TREND SOUTH AT
10-15 KTS AFTER 06Z FRI. AFTER 15Z FRI, S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
AT ALL AIRPORTS, GUSTING 22-28 KTS, STRONGEST AT DDC/HYS. EXPECT
GOOD FLYING WEATHER THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH VFR/SKC
CONTINUING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...TURNER
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