332
FXUS63 KDDC 192011
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SREF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HELP
OF ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A PROJECTED
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY, PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
SCARCE FOR WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS PREVAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING REINFORCES A WARMER AIR MASS ACROSS
THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE LATEST HREF SHOWS A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 40F IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO ONLY A 10-30%
PROBABILITY OF BELOW 40F IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXPECT LOWS
ONLY DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER
40S(F) FARTHER SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE SATURDAY,
BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MORNING, LOWERING H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW 5C IN CENTRAL KANSAS
TO NEAR 10C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO LINE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S(F) WITH NEAR 60F IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HREF PAINTING A WIDESPREAD
BETTER THAN 90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 45F BUT ONLY
A 10% PROBABILITY OF TOPPING 50F IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO A 90% PROBABILITY
OF REACHING ABOVE 55F IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SLOW
TO ERODE THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
MONDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION WHILE
DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING BRINGS ABOUT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING, HELPING SEND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT
THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN WESTERLY 5 TO 15KT
GENERALLY AFTER 04-06Z AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN
EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO PUSH EAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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