104
FXUS63 KDDC 192225
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
425 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS, AT
LEAST THROUGH DECEMBER 29TH.
- ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM NEXT WEEK, WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
- THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED FOR NEXT SATURDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SREF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE HELP OF ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BEHIND A PROJECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY, PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SCARCE FOR WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING REINFORCES A WARMER
AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE LATEST HREF SHOWS A
60-80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 40F IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TO ONLY A 10-30% PROBABILITY OF BELOW 40F IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXPECT LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 40S(F) FARTHER SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE SATURDAY, BUT REMAIN A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MORNING,
LOWERING H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW 5C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 10C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO LINE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S(F) WITH NEAR 60F IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HREF PAINTING
A WIDESPREAD BETTER THAN 90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 45F BUT ONLY A 10% PROBABILITY OF TOPPING 50F IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO A 90% PROBABILITY OF REACHING ABOVE 55F IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SLOW TO
ERODE THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
MONDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING BRINGS ABOUT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING, HELPING SEND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF SCATTERED/BROKEN CIRRUS. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS IN PROGRESS AT
2230Z WILL VEER SWLY THROUGH 06Z SAT, THEN NWLY THROUGH 12Z SAT.
THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE AIRPORTS ABOUT 15Z
SAT, AFTER WHICH ELEVATED TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST 30-33 KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
15-21Z SAT, BEFORE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING THROUGH SUNSET.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...TURNER
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