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FXUS63 KDDC 200512
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1112 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS, AT
LEAST THROUGH DECEMBER 29TH.
- ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM NEXT WEEK, WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
- THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED FOR NEXT SATURDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SREF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE HELP OF ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BEHIND A PROJECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY, PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SCARCE FOR WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING REINFORCES A WARMER
AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE LATEST HREF SHOWS A
60-80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 40F IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TO ONLY A 10-30% PROBABILITY OF BELOW 40F IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXPECT LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 40S(F) FARTHER SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE SATURDAY, BUT REMAIN A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE AS COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MORNING,
LOWERING H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW 5C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 10C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO LINE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S(F) WITH NEAR 60F IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HREF PAINTING
A WIDESPREAD BETTER THAN 90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 45F BUT ONLY A 10% PROBABILITY OF TOPPING 50F IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO A 90% PROBABILITY OF REACHING ABOVE 55F IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SLOW TO
ERODE THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
MONDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING BRINGS ABOUT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING, HELPING SEND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 06Z-10Z, AND THEN SHIFT NORTHERLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 30 AROUND KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BENNETT
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