222
FXUS63 KDDC 200814
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
214 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY COLD FRONT THIS MORNING BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO AROUND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
EARLY MORNING MID TO UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW PRIMARILY STRONG
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHALLOW SHORTWAVE IS,
HOWEVER, EVIDENT IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO A STRUNG OUT AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO, TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST, AND NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL
SEND A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING,
AND THEN CLEARING THE STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT AND THE MAIN
SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL NOTICEABLY
INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE
15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS 30-40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE KEPT AT BAY IN THE 50S MAINLY WITH PERHAPS LOW 60S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER (THOUGH STILL IN THE 50S)
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL START A PROLONGED
STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SOME OF WHICH MAY
APPROACH OR SET RECORDS. RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
LEADING TO VERY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. NBM PROBABILITIES OF MAXIMUM HIGH
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 75 CONTINUE TO RISE TO 40-80% ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. SOME
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 80 DEGREES ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
ON THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS), ESPECIALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER, BUT
SOME LOW PROBABILITIES EVEN EXTEND NORTHWARD TO PLACES LIKE
DODGE CITY AND PRATT. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WE ARE ALREADY
FORECASTING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS AT 2 OF THE 3
CLIMATE SITES, DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY, WHERE THE RECORDS ARE
BOTH 74 DEGREES. CERTAINLY NOT FEELING LIKE CHRISTMAS AT THOSE
TEMPERATURES!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 06Z-10Z, AND THEN SHIFT NORTHERLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 30 AROUND KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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