326
FXUS63 KDDC 202044
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
244 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S ON MONDAY (APPROACHING 80 AT ELKHART)
- THE OVERALL DRY DOWNSLOPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS DAY (50% CHANCE OF
HIGHS 80+ IN THE RED HILLS REGION)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
THE ZONAL JET STREAM PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP WESTERN
KANSAS DRY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSITION DAY TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS MONDAY APPEARS TO BE QUITE WARM. ELKHART WILL LIKELY
FLIRT WITH 80 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 70S LIKELY SPREADING AS
FAR EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR. A SUBTLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WILL RESULT IN A PULLBACK IN TEMPERATURE TUESDAY, BUT SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WILL BE RIGHT BACK INTO THE RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH OF 70S
WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE) AND THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY). RIGHT NOW,
CHRISTMAS DAY IS THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LATEST 7-DAY FORECAST WITH
NBM HIGHS 72-77F (75TH PERCENTILE HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES
BETWEEN THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND THE OKLAHOMA LINE).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE ONSET OF THIS TAF PERIOD
WILL DECREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT
(LESS THAN 7 KNOTS) AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY BEFORE.
NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE CONTINUED DRY ATMOSPHERE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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