740
FXUS63 KDDC 210515
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1115 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10
DAYS, AT LEAST THROUGH DECEMBER 30TH.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS.
- A LONG STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (BOTH HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES WAY ABOVE NORMAL) EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS OF 75-80 EXPECTED CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
THE ZONAL JET STREAM PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP WESTERN
KANSAS DRY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSITION DAY TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS MONDAY APPEARS TO BE QUITE WARM. ELKHART WILL
LIKELY FLIRT WITH 80 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 70S LIKELY
SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS THE HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR. A SUBTLE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A PULLBACK IN TEMPERATURE TUESDAY,
BUT SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE RIGHT BACK INTO THE RECORD/NEAR
RECORD WARMTH OF 70S WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE) AND THURSDAY
(CHRISTMAS DAY). RIGHT NOW, CHRISTMAS DAY IS THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE LATEST 7-DAY FORECAST WITH NBM HIGHS 72-77F (75TH PERCENTILE
HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES BETWEEN THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND THE
OKLAHOMA LINE).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS PERIODIC MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME
PERIOD. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TERMINALS
WILL HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS AT 12-20 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
BETWEEN 18-00Z TODAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...TATRO
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