307
FXUS63 KDDC 050431
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1031 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH BOTH SUNRISE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE EARLY JANUARY NORMALS.
- THE LONG DRY STRETCH WILL CONTINUE, WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY.
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY, WITH SOME WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
MIDDAY INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS MORNING'S CIRRUS
CANOPY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED SW WINDS PREVAILING, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. THE FULL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENTS ARE SENDING TEMPERATURES
SOARING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST ZONES. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL
BE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST, WITH MORE CIRRUS AND LESS MIXING,
AND MID 70S WEST OF US 83. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
3 PM, AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS COLLAPSE. A WEAK LEESIDE CYCLONE
NEAR BACA COUNTY COLORADO AT 6 PM, WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SW
KS AND THE ADJOINING HIGH PLAINS AS A BROAD WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, LESS THAN 15 MPH, WITH A GENERALLY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY PLEASANT JANUARY DAY WILL BE
ENJOYED. MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY COOLING MONDAY, SO ONCE AGAIN
MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS ABOUT
25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THE RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 5TH IN THE
UPPER 70S APPEAR TO BE SAFE.
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS MONDAY NIGHT, VEERING WINDS MORE
NWLY, AND KNOCKING TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 5 DEGREES.
QUIET UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, AND
WITH LITTLE THERMAL CHANGES, PLEASANT 60S WILL AGAIN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LATE WEDNESDAY, TWO SYSTEMS ARRIVE IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, AND A
CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY/STRENGTHEN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY, PER AN
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONSENSUS. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY FOR MOST OF SW KS, BUT SOME RAIN MAY CLIP THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES COURTESY OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM EJECTING SHORTWAVE.
THIS IS ABOUT WHERE PREDICTABILITY REALLY DROPS OFF, AS GLOBAL
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LITTLE CONSENSUS HOW
THIS ROCKIES TROUGH AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
INTERACT. 12Z GFS SOLUTION PHASES THE TWO WAVES TOGETHER,
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW IN KANSAS FRIDAY. THIS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION WAS LARGELY IGNORED, AS THE 12Z GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER EAST, ALIGNING MORE
WITH CLIMATOLOGY WITH PROGRESSIVE WAVES IN THE WINTER. THAT
BEING SAID, THE 12Z GFS HAS GAINED SOME SUPPORT FROM OTHER
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, SUCH AS 12Z ECMWF/ENS, AND SEVERAL EPS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, SUGGESTING ACCUMULATING SNOW CENTERED ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE NBM KEEPS MODEST
POPS (15-30%) FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND SNOW ON FRIDAY, FAVORING
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, AND THIS IS AN ACCEPTABLE FORECAST FOR
NOW, AS WE WAIT FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO FURTHER CONVERGE ON A
SOLUTION. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITY OF > 1 INCH OF SNOW IS ONLY
NEAR 10%, NORTH AND WEST OF DODGE CITY, EARLY FRIDAY. THESE
PROBABILITIES WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK; STAY TUNED.
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A STRONG COOLING TREND LATE WEEK,
TO NEAR NORMAL JANUARY TEMPERATURES. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL SHAVE TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
THURSDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS WITH WAVE PHASING AND
INTERACTION, THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS (STRONGER THAN NBM)
AND MUCH COLDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20KT GENERALLY AFTER 14-16Z AS A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO PUSHES EAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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