587
FXUS63 KDDC 050812
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
212 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY/UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE RISK FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TRANSITIONING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
AN ONGOING DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE SREF
SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITING EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WHILE AN EXTREMELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA, NUDGING AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
FARTHER EAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REINFORCE
AN ALREADY DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE A FAIRLY ROBUST
ZONAL JET ALOFT, THE ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY EARLY IN THE PERIOD
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE TODAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ENHANCES THE WARM AIR
MASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES UP NEAR
TO A LITTLE ABOVE 15C. UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS UP INTO THE 60S/70S(F) WITH THE HREF PAINTING A 50-70%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 60F IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO A
30-50% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES NUDGING ABOVE 70F CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA LINE. TEMPERATURES BACK OFF A LITTLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS SPREADS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BEHIND THE ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20KT GENERALLY AFTER 14-16Z AS A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO PUSHES EAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WARMER AND MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUPPORTED
BY NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING IS EXPECTED TO DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BELOW 20-25% IN PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY GUSTY WINDS, THIS WILL PRODUCE
AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A GARDEN CITY
TO ASHLAND LINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...JJOHNSON
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