277
FXUS63 KDDC 060457
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1057 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH BOTH SUNRISE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE EARLY JANUARY NORMALS.
- THE LONG DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE, WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS
REMAINING DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHT RAIN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING INTENSE NORTH WINDS AND MUCH
COLDER AIR FRIDAY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
NBM PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOW IS INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
THE QUIET DRY WEATHER REGIME CONTINUED ACROSS SW KS AT MIDDAY,
WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS EMBEDDED IN THE WNWLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN EASILY MEET OR EXCEED THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE, WITH GENTLE NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE OVER INCREASINGLY DRY
TOPSOILS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR 70 THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MID 60S NORTHEAST RANGING TO MID 70S ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA. THE
NORMAL HIGH FOR JANUARY 5TH IS MID 40S.
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SW KS TONIGHT, WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A MINOR UPTICK IN NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. WITH THE GENTLE NWLY MIXING/DOWNSLOPE, MANY
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER,
BUT STILL WELL INTO THE 60S, FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY PLEASANT
JANUARY DAY. THE STRING OF UNUSUALLY NICE JANUARY DAYS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, AS MIDLEVEL FLOW TRENDS MORE SWLY. MODELS
SHOW NO APPRECIABLE COOLING, AS SUCH 60S WILL BE COMMON IN THE
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. AT 6 PM WEDNESDAY, A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE PACIFIC NW COAST, AND A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR TUCSON, ARIZONA.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL IMPACT SW KS WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL FORCE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO EJECT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS THURSDAY. RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM
IS MODELED TO BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF SW KS THURSDAY, WHERE
NBM POPS HAVE TICKED UPWARD INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. ALL
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN, AND
MOST OF THE RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE DDC
CWA. PRELIMINARY QPF GRIDS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS, <0.25"
WHERE RAIN FALLS THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO STRONGLY AMPLIFY AND
DIG SOUTHWARD, CARVING OUT A STRONG CLOSED MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OVER
NEW MEXICO BY 6 AM FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
SOMEWHAT SLOWER, STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM, AND ACCORDINGLY THE NBM PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOW
IS INCREASING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. NBM POPS INCREASED SHARPLY
INTO THE SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY THIS FORECAST UPDATE, AND NBM
PROBABILITY OF > 1 INCH OF SNOW IS UP TO 40-50% NORTH AND WEST
OF DODGE CITY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
RESIDENCY TIME OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO EARLY TO
DISCUSS SNOW AMOUNTS, FOR A STORM SYSTEM 4 DAYS AWAY. DEVIATIONS
IN THE PROJECTED TRACK WILL OCCUR, AND IMPACT WHERE MESOSCALE
BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL.
REGARDLESS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WE HAVE HIGH CERTAINTY FOR A
SHARP RETURN TO COLD JANUARY REALITY FRIDAY. THE INTENSE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER NO LATER THAN 6 PM
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY INTENSE NORTH WINDS. 850 MB WIND FIELDS FROM
THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE,
SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS OF THE CALIBER ARE PROBABLE. COUPLED WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW, SIGNIFICANT BLOWING/DRIFTING AND REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHERE MORE THAN ONE INCH ACCUMULATES. CURRENT THINKING IS SNOW
WILL END BY 6 AM SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A NON- DIURNAL
CRASH DOWNWARD FRIDAY, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ON THE NEW SNOWPACK SATURDAY MORNING, AT LEAST DOWN INTO THE
TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
15 TO 25KT GENERALLY AFTER 15-17Z AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN WITH INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LEE SIDE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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