767
FXUS63 KDDC 061719
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1119 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE SREF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAKENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPING WILL
CONTINUE TO REINFORCE A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY WHILE LEE SIDE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. WITH A LACK OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABSENT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN TO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THURSDAY AS ENSEMBLES POINT TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LIFTING ACROSS WEST TEXAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY. NEAR THE
SURFACE, PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
SHIFTING EAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL DRAW MODEST MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING UP INTO THE 40S(F). ALTHOUGH DOING LITTLE TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY, SUFFICIENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL LIGHT/MODERATE
RAIN DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE
NBM PAINTING A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF 12-HR QPF EXCEEDING ONLY 0.1
OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A LITTLE TODAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MASS SPREADS INTO WESTERN KANSAS, DROPPING H85 TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW 10C BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE HREF INDICATING A 30-
50% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 60F ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH AN 80-90% PROBABILITY OF TOPPING 60F CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA LINE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S(F). DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES PREVAILING. MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT, ONLY GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH. WINDS
CALM INTO TONIGHT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BENNETT
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