361
FXUS63 KDDC 062300
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
- INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL
FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS SHOW WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AMID WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
NEARLY 15-20F ABOVE HISTORICAL NORMS FOR EARLY JANUARY. WITH
CONTINUING ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, EXPECT A
SIMILAR DAY AND REPEAT INTO WEDNESDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. RECORDS APPEAR SAFE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
RECORD HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY, AND WELL INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY.
REGARDLESS, IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES THIS WINTER SEASON THUS
FAR.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE LATER THIS WEEK,
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS A COUPLE OF WAVES EMERGE AND TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE,
CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE EMERGING
INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING, PULLING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD, LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WITH
THE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR, EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO BRING ALL
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS A
CHANCE TO SEE RAINFALL, BUT GREATER CHANCES (50-70%) RESIDE
EAST OF ROUTE 283 INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO
BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5" AS NBM PROBABILITIES OF 0.5" OR
GREATER ARE LESS THAN 40%. RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISH INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST WAVE, AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SECOND
WAVE (CURRENTLY WAY OFF IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC), COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS COLDER AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
SECOND WAVE TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BUILD THAT
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA,
BUT EXACT PLACEMENT AND HOW MUCH IS STILL MORE UNCERTAIN.
SOLUTIONS LIKE THE NAM/GFS/ENSCONTROL SHOW A CLOSED 850-700 MB
LOW TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, FAVORING MORE
SNOW, BUT THE SREF AND OTHER ENSEMBLES HIGHLIGHTS A MORE OPEN
WAVE STRUCTURE, FAVORING LESS SNOW. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON WHERE THE GREATEST FRONTOGENESIS
AND BANDING OCCURS, BUT THOSE DETAILS WILL LIKELY NOT EMERGE
UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALL OF THIS BOILS DOWN TO NBM
PROBABILITIES HAVE MARKEDLY INCREASED FOR >1" 24 HOUR SNOWFALL
TO GREATER THAN 60% ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND
PROBABILITIES OF >2" HAS ALSO INCREASED TO 40-60% CHANCE, MAINLY
WEST OF ROUTE 283. BREEZY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LOOKING
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM, SO SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFING SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR, VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS, AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
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