571
FXUS63 KDDC 071718
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1118 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) RETURN MAINLY TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THURSDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- SNOW CHANCES (50-70%) FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN EASTERN COLORADO.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SREF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A WEAKENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, NOT TO MENTION AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR
MASS DOMINATING THE LOWER/MID LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
KANSAS. RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) PICK UP EARLY THURSDAY, MAINLY FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SWIFTLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT, AND FARTHER UP THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM,
PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL DRAW MODEST MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 40S(F),
THOUGH DOING LITTLE TO INCREASE ANY INSTABILITY. STILL, SUFFICIENT
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO AN ADVANCING
SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO SET THE STAGE FOR LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN REMAINS TO BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE HREF INDICATES
A 70-90% PROBABILITY FOR MINIMAL POTENTIAL RAIN AMOUNTS WITH 6-HR
QPF EXCEEDING ONLY 0.1 OF AN INCH GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LIBERAL
TO LARNED LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES REMAIN ON TARGET POINTING TO SNOW CHANCES
(50-70%) ARRIVING FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE
THURSDAY, THEN TURNING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN REGARD TO THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AS PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES REINFORCE A MILDER AIR MASS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS, SUPPORTING H85 TEMPERATURES
UP AROUND 10C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 12C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. WITH THE HREF INDICATING BETTER THAN A 90% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 55F IN VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO A
70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES NUDGING ABOVE 60F NEAR AND ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA LINE, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
60S(F). THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
A LOW MOVING COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND POSSIBLY A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE OF HIGHS AS COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, LOWERING H85 TEMPERATURES
WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS(C) WHILE H85 TEMPERATURES HOLD
UP NEAR 10C IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO
THE 40S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE HREF POINTS TO ONLY
A 10-20% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 45F TO BETTER THAN
A 90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE 60F IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA LINE. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES
SATURDAY AS THE 0C ISOTHERM PUSHES WELL SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
LIKELY PRECIP ABOUT, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. A PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK WILL BE
WITH US ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER, MINIMAL
RISK TO AVIATION IS EXPECTED. INTO TONIGHT, A SYSTEM SWINGS OUT
INTO THE PLAINS, BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AFTER
07Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
MORNING AND TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EXPECT CIGS
TO LOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BENNETT
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