015
FXUS63 KDDC 072307
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
507 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN (1/4 TO 1/2 INCH) THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW, WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY.
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPEDE AND EJECT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH IT, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN RESPONSE, LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. A PERIOD
OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY. WITH THE STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THE MORE RICH MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, HINDERING GREATER RAINFALL
TOTALS AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO
BE LOW (<10-20%) FOR 0.5" OR MORE QPF THROUGH TOMORROW.
THEREFORE, LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE TO BE EXPECTED THE THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
QUICK ON THE FIRST SYSTEMS HEALS, A SECOND WAVE WILL EMERGE INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM, THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE FORM OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A CLOSED WAVE TURNING MORE OPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. A
CLOSED WAVE WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW TOTALS.
HOWEVER, WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE NOW BECOMING WITHIN BETTER
RANGE, THEY ULTIMATELY ARE SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE STRUCTURE.
THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A MORE MUTED SOLUTION, WITH
HEAVIEST AXIS OF SNOWFALL FARTHER SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REGARDING POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS, PROBABILITIES
OF 2" OR MORE OF SNOWFALL STILL REMAIN AT MODERATE CHANCE LEVELS
(30-60%) ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 283. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS A MINOR IMPACT EVENT, WITH WPCS WSSI-P HIGHLIGHTING UP TO 60%
CHANCE OF MINOR WINTER STORM SEVERITY, WITH ONLY A 5-10% CHANCE
OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATE WINTER STORM SEVERITY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO OVERLAP THE SNOWFALL, THEREFORE BLOWING
SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DEGRADE THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS CEILINGS
AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED AT DDC/GCK/HYS
STARTING 09-12Z THU. EXPECTING RAIN COVERAGE TO BE LESS, WITH
HIGHER CEILINGS, AROUND LBL, SO KEPT THE LBL TAF MORE OPTIMISTIC
AS THE CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS. VISIBILITY WILL
BE REDUCED TO NEAR 2SM (IFR) AT TIMES, IN BR/RA, AT GCK/DDC/HYS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL END RAPIDLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 15Z THU. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
15Z THU. AFTER 15Z THU, NW WINDS WILL SHARPLY INCREASE AT ALL
AIRPORTS, GUSTING 28-32 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
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