057
FXUS63 KDDC 080534
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1134 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN (1/4 TO 1/2 INCH) THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW, WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY.
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
UPDATED FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY TO INCREASE POPS TO
DEFINITE/CATEGORICAL FOR MANY ZONES, TO THE 80-90% RANGE.
TRACK OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE, ALONG WITH EXCELLENT MOISTURE
SUPPLY, FAVORS A WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS
SW KS BY 6 AM THURSDAY. RAIN WILL END RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY. INCREASED NW WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER MAV/NBM 90%ILE
GUIDANCE THURSDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH.
RAIN, CLOUDS AND MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALL WORK TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN DAYLIGHT THURSDAY, AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S.
NO CHANGES TO FRIDAY'S SNOW FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPEDE AND EJECT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH IT, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN RESPONSE, LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. A PERIOD
OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY. WITH THE STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THE MORE RICH MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, HINDERING GREATER RAINFALL
TOTALS AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO
BE LOW (<10-20%) FOR 0.5" OR MORE QPF THROUGH TOMORROW.
THEREFORE, LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE TO BE EXPECTED THE THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
QUICK ON THE FIRST SYSTEMS HEALS, A SECOND WAVE WILL EMERGE INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. LATE TONIGHT AND TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM, THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE FORM OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A CLOSED WAVE TURNING MORE OPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. A
CLOSED WAVE WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW TOTALS.
HOWEVER, WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE NOW BECOMING WITHIN BETTER
RANGE, THEY ULTIMATELY ARE SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE STRUCTURE.
THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A MORE MUTED SOLUTION, WITH
HEAVIEST AXIS OF SNOWFALL FARTHER SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REGARDING POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS, PROBABILITIES
OF 2" OR MORE OF SNOWFALL STILL REMAIN AT MODERATE CHANCE LEVELS
(30-60%) ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 283. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS A MINOR IMPACT EVENT, WITH WPCS WSSI-P HIGHLIGHTING UP TO 60%
CHANCE OF MINOR WINTER STORM SEVERITY, WITH ONLY A 5-10% CHANCE
OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATE WINTER STORM SEVERITY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO OVERLAP THE SNOWFALL, THEREFORE BLOWING
SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
STEADIER AND HEAVIER AT TIMES DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER FROM
VFR (AT OR ABOVE 3500FT AGL) AT 10Z THIS MORNING INTO THE
500-1000FT AGL BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY AS THE STEADIER
RAINFALL DEVELOPS. IN THE HAYS AREA, CEILINGS WILL BE EVEN LOWER
WITH AREAS OF FOG BEING POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z. THESE LOW CEILINGS
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES AND NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TURNER
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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