382
FXUS63 KDDC 081104
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN TODAY. 70-90% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
TOTALS TO BE >0.25" ALONG AND NORTH OF A NESS CITY TO LARNED
TO STAFFORD LINE.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED WEST OF A LIBERAL TO SUBLETTE LINE.
- LOWS IN THE TEENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
TWO SEPARATE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY
AND THE SECOND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY. TODAY, A
SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, LOCATED NEAR WEST
TEXAS AT MIDNIGHT, WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOISTURE AND IMPROVING LIFT WILL DEVELOP
AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL EARLY
TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR BUT BY FRIDAY
MORNING, OUR SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT ONLY BRING COLD AIR INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BUT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
EARLY THIS MORNING THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO
VERIFY WELL ON SHORT TERM MODELS AND WAS SPREADING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS, JUST AS THE MODELS SUGGESTED. THIS RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE FULLY PASSES LATER
THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF DODGE HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DUE
TO MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY.
WHILE MOST AREAS TODAY WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2" OF
RAINFALL (>60% CHANCE)...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (70-90%) FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS TO EXCEED 0.25 INCHES WILL BE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY, SPECIFICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A NESS
CITY TO LARNED TO STAFFORD LINE. THIS AREA WILL BENEFIT FROM
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER WAVE. AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR, ACCOMPANYING THE
HIGHER RAIN POTENTIAL.
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE
TODAY WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS OUR
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. BY THE TIME THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ONLY SNOW. THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS A SOUTHERN
BRANCH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS,
COMBINED WITH THE DIFLUENT FLOW NORTH OF THE APPROACHING NEW
MEXICO UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
HERE TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH EXITS
THE ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
RUNS, THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF ENHANCED 750-600 MB FRONTOGENESIS WEST OF THE DODGE CITY
AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IMPROVES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES. ALL MODELS ALSO TEND
TO AGREE THAT THIS ENHANCED FORCING IS WHAT WILL BE NEEDED FOR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WHAT IS DIFFERENT THIS
MORNING IS THAT THE SHORT TERM MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
TO A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IF THIS
DOES VERIFY, THEN THIS ENHANCED FORCING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE
FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH AND BE MAINLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. IF
THIS DOES OCCUR, THEN THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OCCURRING
FURTHER NORTH. THIS SHIFT IN LOCATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY, AND CURRENTLY THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE ALSO APPEARS TO
FAVOR THIS FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION WITH ITS SNOWFALL FORECAST.
WILL THEREFORE STAY CLOSE TO WHAT WPC HAS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BEING POSSIBLE FROM THIS EVENT ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
ON FRIDAY WEST OF LIBERAL AND LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER.
CURRENTLY GIVEN THE SOUTHERN TREND FROM THE SHORT TERM MODELS,
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER, ESPECIALLY WEST OF LIBERAL, WHERE THERE IS A
60-80% CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES, WHILE
AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER NORTH OF GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY.
THOSE TRAVELING OR HAVING OUTDOOR PLANS ON FRIDAY IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, PARTICULARLY WEST OF LIBERAL AND NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER, SHOULD PREPARE FOR A MODERATE IMPACT EVENT (2+
INCHES OF SNOW). TRAVELERS WEST OF LIBERAL AND NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY
AND BE PREPARED TO MAKE ALTERNATE PLANS IF NEEDED.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW
CHANCES WILL END AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THIS UPPER TROUGH EXITS WESTERN KANSAS AND A COLD DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND THE EXPECTED NEW SNOW WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME COLD LOWS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE COLD, OR SHOULD WE SAY MORE SEASONAL,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGHS CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THIS MORNING AS VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERS OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS. BOTH BUFR AND LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATED CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000FT AGL BY 15Z. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY AND
AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS ANTICIPATED WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. THE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY, DECREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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