823
FXUS63 KDDC 082000
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN DEPARTING THE AREA INTO THIS EARLY EVENING; BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
- MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW THE GRADUAL TAPERING OFF
OF RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH IT LINGERING NORTH OF
ROUTE 50 AND UP ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED AND UP TO 40 MPH
GUSTS ARE PREVALENT. LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED WITH THE
DEPARTING RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS, BUT MOTORISTS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO TAKE IT SLOW ON WET ROADS AND THERE COULD BE MOMENTS OF
DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES FROM THE WINDS. WINDS
AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN STORY OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR/NAMNEST/RAP FAVOR THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AND
GREATEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, IT IS OF INTERESTING
NOTE THAT THE ENS CONTROL AND THE OTHER ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE COME BACK FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SWATH OF SNOW,
FAVORING MORE WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE SOLUTIONS
FROM YESTERDAY. OTHER MODELS THAT ARE IN THIS CAMP ARE THE
RRFS/SREF AS WELL. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FAVORS THE
FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT PULL
NORTHWARD CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT IF THE 850-700 MB LOW
MANAGES TO CLOSE OFF AS IT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. THE
PROBABILITY OF 2" OF SNOWFALL OR GREATER IS HIGHEST (50-80%)
ACROSS GRANT, MORTON, SEWARD, STANTON, AND STEVENS COUNTIES,
HENCE THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL
1-4" OF SNOWFALL. GIVEN THERE ARE STILL A FEW SCENARIOS, EVEN
WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT, CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AREA WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN FUTURE UPDATES. NONETHELESS, THE CURRENT AREA IS
WHERE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS FROM
SNOWFALL BEING PRESENT AS ADVERTISED BY THE WPCS WSSI (WINTER
STORM SEVERITY INDEX). THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED, AND ANY TRAVELERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
LEAVE MORE TIME FOR TRAVEL AND USE CAUTION ON SLICK ROADS. THERE
REMAINS THE LOW CHANCE OF BLOWING SNOW, WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES COULD OCCUR GIVEN FORECAST WINDS DURING THE
FALLING SNOW TO BE UPWARDS TO 30-40 MPH. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
BEYOND THE STORM, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO A MORE MILD TREND EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 50S AND 60S STARTING
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOWERS, RESULTING IN
LOWER CIGS, WILL DEPART THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL EMERGE INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING
WITH IT MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION. SNOWFALL, RESULTING IN
LOWERED VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT LBL. TERMINALS LIKE DDC,
HYS, AND GCK WILL STILL GET IN ON SOME SNOW, BUT INTENSITY IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO DRASTICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. OVERALL,
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXPECT SNOWFALL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO IMPACT AVIATION.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
KSZ074-075-084>086.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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