079
FXUS63 KDDC 090105
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
705 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SNOW FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS.
HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF US 50, AND ALONG AND WEST OF US 283, WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. MOST ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN WET.
- ELEVATED NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER FRIDAY, WITH
UNCOMFORTABLE WIND CHILLS.
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER RESUMES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE INHERITED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE MORE OF SW KS ON FRIDAY, TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US 50, AND ALONG AND WEST OF US 283. INCOMING COLD
TROUGH IS QUITE VIGOROUS PER INFRARED SATELLITE, WITH THE
LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACTIVE IN NEW MEXICO. THE
EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS ONTO
THE PLAINS DAYLIGHT FRIDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LATEST 18Z
GUIDANCE TRENDS, AM CONCERNED THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL REMAIN
ROBUST THROUGH MUCH OF SW KS, AT LEAST THE SW 1/2 OF SW KS,
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY, BEFORE THE CYCLONE COMPLETELY
DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN WAVE. AS SUCH, INCREASED QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA, WITH 1-4 INCH AMOUNTS
COMMON. STILL FEEL MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH
WET ROADS AND SURFACES, LIMITING THE SNOW TOTALS. WHILE 18Z
MODELS SEEM OVERDONE ON SNOW AMOUNTS GIVEN THESE MELTING
CONCERNS, WARM GROUND TEMPS, AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE, AM
CONCERNED SNOW AMOUNTS ON GRASSY SURFACES MAY SURPASS 4 INCHES
DIAGONALLY FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTER. MODELS
ARE REALLY HONING IN ON THIS CORRIDOR, AND THE 00Z MODELS WILL
BE STUDIED CLOSELY TO DETERMINE IF MORE CHANGES IN HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NEEDED. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE, AS USUAL, BUT
INDICATIONS ARE THIS HEAVIER BAND MAY SET UP NEAR/NORTH OF US
56.
UPDATED FORECAST WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AND UPDATED ADVISORY SENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW THE GRADUAL TAPERING OFF
OF RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH IT LINGERING NORTH OF
ROUTE 50 AND UP ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED AND UP TO 40 MPH
GUSTS ARE PREVALENT. LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED WITH THE
DEPARTING RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS, BUT MOTORISTS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO TAKE IT SLOW ON WET ROADS AND THERE COULD BE MOMENTS OF
DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES FROM THE WINDS. WINDS
AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN STORY OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR/NAMNEST/RAP FAVOR THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AND
GREATEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, IT IS OF INTERESTING
NOTE THAT THE ENS CONTROL AND THE OTHER ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE COME BACK FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SWATH OF SNOW,
FAVORING MORE WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE
SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. OTHER MODELS THAT ARE IN THIS CAMP
ARE THE RRFS/SREF AS WELL. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FAVORS
THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT PULL
NORTHWARD CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT IF THE 850-700 MB LOW
MANAGES TO CLOSE OFF AS IT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. THE
PROBABILITY OF 2" OF SNOWFALL OR GREATER IS HIGHEST (50-80%)
ACROSS GRANT, MORTON, SEWARD, STANTON, AND STEVENS COUNTIES,
HENCE THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL
1-4" OF SNOWFALL. GIVEN THERE ARE STILL A FEW SCENARIOS, EVEN
WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT, CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AREA WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN FUTURE UPDATES. NONETHELESS, THE CURRENT AREA IS
WHERE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS FROM
SNOWFALL BEING PRESENT AS ADVERTISED BY THE WPCS WSSI (WINTER
STORM SEVERITY INDEX). THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED, AND ANY TRAVELERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
LEAVE MORE TIME FOR TRAVEL AND USE CAUTION ON SLICK ROADS. THERE
REMAINS THE LOW CHANCE OF BLOWING SNOW, WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES COULD OCCUR GIVEN FORECAST WINDS DURING
THE FALLING SNOW TO BE UPWARDS TO 30-40 MPH. THE SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
BEYOND THE STORM, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO A MORE MILD TREND EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 50S AND 60S STARTING
MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS TAF PERIOD, THROUGH
12Z FRI, WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
NORTH WINDS PREVAILING. HIGH CONFIDENCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
DEGRADE DAYLIGHT FRIDAY, WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR/IFR, AT
GCK/LBL/DDC THROUGH THE DAY. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT HYS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD, WITH MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PREVAILING.
AT GCK/LBL/DDC, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE 15-18Z
FRI TIME FRAME, AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SAT. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED TO IFR (1-2 SM) AT TIMES AS THE SNOW FALLS. LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW IS FORECAST AT HYS, AND ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT HYS.
AFTER 18Z FRI, NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL AIRPORTS,
GUSTING 25-28 KTS, WHICH MAY CAUSE LIMITED BLOWING SNOW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TO 7 PM CST
/6 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR KSZ061>064-074>078-084>088.
UPDATE...TURNER
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
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