568
FXUS63 KDDC 090529
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1129 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SNOW FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS.
HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF US 50, AND ALONG AND WEST OF US 283, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. MOST ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN WET.
- HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WHERE UP TO 8
INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
- ELEVATED NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER FRIDAY, WITH
UNCOMFORTABLE WIND CHILLS.
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS SATURDAY MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER RESUMES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW THE GRADUAL TAPERING OFF
OF RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH IT LINGERING NORTH OF
ROUTE 50 AND UP ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED AND UP TO 40 MPH
GUSTS ARE PREVALENT. LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED WITH THE
DEPARTING RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS, BUT MOTORISTS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO TAKE IT SLOW ON WET ROADS AND THERE COULD BE MOMENTS OF
DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES FROM THE WINDS. WINDS
AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN STORY OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR/NAMNEST/RAP FAVOR THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AND
GREATEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, IT IS OF INTERESTING
NOTE THAT THE ENS CONTROL AND THE OTHER ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE COME BACK FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SWATH OF SNOW,
FAVORING MORE WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE
SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. OTHER MODELS THAT ARE IN THIS CAMP
ARE THE RRFS/SREF AS WELL. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FAVORS
THE FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT PULL
NORTHWARD CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT IF THE 850-700 MB LOW
MANAGES TO CLOSE OFF AS IT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. THE
PROBABILITY OF 2" OF SNOWFALL OR GREATER IS HIGHEST (50-80%)
ACROSS GRANT, MORTON, SEWARD, STANTON, AND STEVENS COUNTIES,
HENCE THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL
1-4" OF SNOWFALL. GIVEN THERE ARE STILL A FEW SCENARIOS, EVEN
WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT, CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AREA WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN FUTURE UPDATES. NONETHELESS, THE CURRENT AREA IS
WHERE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS IN AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS FROM
SNOWFALL BEING PRESENT AS ADVERTISED BY THE WPCS WSSI (WINTER
STORM SEVERITY INDEX). THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED, AND ANY TRAVELERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
LEAVE MORE TIME FOR TRAVEL AND USE CAUTION ON SLICK ROADS. THERE
REMAINS THE LOW CHANCE OF BLOWING SNOW, WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES COULD OCCUR GIVEN FORECAST WINDS DURING
THE FALLING SNOW TO BE UPWARDS TO 30-40 MPH. THE SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
BEYOND THE STORM, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO A MORE MILD TREND EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 50S AND 60S STARTING
MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER
09Z THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME STEADIER AND
HEAVIER AT TIMES BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z TODAY WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 3 MILES AT TIMES. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE THE GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL AREAS WILL HAVE A 50-60%
CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES TO FALL BACK TO 1 MILE OR LESS FROM THIS
STEADIER AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL TODAY. ALSO THE GARDEN CITY AND
LIBERAL AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS. ALONG
WITH THE LOW VISIBILITIES THE CEILINGS WILL FALL TO BELOW
1000FT AGL AS THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPS. CURRENTLY
BASED ONLY HAYS WILL MISS THESE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE
CITY WHILE 4 AND 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE LIBERAL
AREA.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TO 7 PM CST
/6 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR KSZ061>064-076>078-087-088.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ074-
075-084>086.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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