733
FXUS63 KDDC 090910
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
WEST OF A LIBERAL TO ULYSSES LINE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT ALONG AND WEST OF A JETMORE TO DODGE CITY TO
ASHLAND LINE.
- LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY WHERE SNOW COVER
EXISTS.
- COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING
TREND WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A SURFACE AND 850MB LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EARLIER THIS MORNING, WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
EARLY LATE MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AT MIDNIGHT TRACKS EAST. NORTH OF THIS NEW MEXICO
LOW, THE SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE ON SNOW DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH NOON TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES AND MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES
LATER TODAY AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT NORTH OF A DEVELOPING 700MB
LOW WILL THEN BE SHUNTED EASTWARD. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
STILL APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DURATION OF
STEADIER/HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER ANY SINGLE LOCATION. DESPITE THIS
PROGRESSIVE NATURE, THE FORECAST FORCING FROM 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS BENEATH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND IMPROVING
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT STILL SUGGESTS A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS BAND OF STEADIER/HEAVIER SNOWFALL PASSES. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING IS HIGH >80% THAT THE AREA OF
HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL THAT WILL OCCUR FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST NOON...HOWEVER EXACT AMOUNTS
ARE STILL NOT CLEAR DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE BAND
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LINGERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEFORE IT STARTS TO
MOVE EAST. FOLLOWING THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS, WHICH MOVE
THE NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH NOON
FRIDAY, SNOWFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES ARE STARTING TO
APPEAR MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN LIBERAL GIVEN THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ENHANCED LIFT. EVEN THE NBM GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SHOWS A 60-70% PROBABILITY FOR 24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES WEST OF HUGOTON TO ULYSSES. THIS IS UP FROM
35 TO 45% CHANCE ONLY 24 HOURS EARLIER. THERE IS ALSO A >70
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS TODAY >2 INCHES TO BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF A JETMORE TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND LINE. BASED
ON THESE SNOWFALL TOTALS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
TODAY ALONG AND WEST OF A JETMORE TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND LINE.
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A
LIBERAL TO ULYSSES LINE, WHERE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.
FURTHER EAST, CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS DECREASES
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIAL
LIMITED TIME FOR THIS ENHANCED LIFT/MOISTURE AHEAD WILL BE
LOCATED OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA. CURRENTLY THE CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 IS
LESS THAN 40%. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THE SPEED OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND HOW STRONG THE LIFT IS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
WAVE LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT CROSSES SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, BUT THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SNOWFALL TOTALS
HERE WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP ONCE THIS UPPER TROUGH EXITS WESTERN
KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME COLD OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE TEENS WITH WIND
CHILLS NEAR ZERO POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW COVER EXISTS.
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
DRY, QUIET WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WARMUP WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER
09Z THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME STEADIER AND
HEAVIER AT TIMES BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z TODAY WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 3 MILES AT TIMES. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE THE GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL AREAS WILL HAVE A 50-60%
CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES TO FALL BACK TO 1 MILE OR LESS FROM THIS
STEADIER AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL TODAY. ALSO THE GARDEN CITY AND
LIBERAL AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS. ALONG
WITH THE LOW VISIBILITIES THE CEILINGS WILL FALL TO BELOW
1000FT AGL AS THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPS. CURRENTLY
BASED ONLY HAYS WILL MISS THESE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE
CITY WHILE 4 AND 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE LIBERAL
AREA.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ THIS MORNING
TO 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ061>064-076>078-087-
088.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ074-075-084>086.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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